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Debt sustainability in the EU New Member States: empirical evidence from a panel of eight Central and East European countries

Author

Listed:
  • Matthieu Llorca

    (LEG - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion - UB - Université de Bourgogne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Srdjan Redžepagić

Abstract

This article aims to assess the sustainability of fiscal policies in a panel of eight EU New Member States, namely Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the Slovak Republic and Slovenia. First, using panel data unit-root tests, econometric findings show that the variables public expenditure and revenue are not stationary. However, employing panel cointegration tests, it is found that government spending and revenue are cointegrated. This implies that fiscal policies in these countries are sustainable in the long run, i.e. they are consistent with inter-temporal budget balance in accordance with the present-value approach. Finally, these results are confirmed if we exclude the countries with sound public finances, namely the three Baltic States and Slovenia: we obtain the same conclusion with a panel comprising Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Poland and the Slovak Republic.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Matthieu Llorca & Srdjan Redžepagić, 2008. "Debt sustainability in the EU New Member States: empirical evidence from a panel of eight Central and East European countries," Post-Print halshs-00338097, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00338097
    DOI: 10.1080/14631370802018882
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Tronzano, 2017. "Testing Fiscal Sustainability In The Transition Economies Of Eastern Europe: The Case Of Poland (1999-2015)," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 70(1), pages 103-132.
    2. Baumöhl, Eduard & Výrost, Tomáš & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2011. "Are we able to capture the EU debt crisis? Evidence from PIIGGS countries in panel unit root framework," MPRA Paper 30334, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Tashevska, Biljana & Trpkova-Nestorovska, Marija & Trenovski, Borce, 2017. "Estimating a fiscal reaction function for the South East European countries," MPRA Paper 91298, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.
    4. Yu Hsing, 2009. "Responses of Output to Declining Stock Values and Real Depreciation in Lituania," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 62(4), pages 429-437.
    5. Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2011. "Unit-root and stationarity testing with empirical application on industrial production of CEE-4 countries," MPRA Paper 29648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mihajlo Djukic & Drasko Nikolic, 2012. "Economic Integration and Analysis of External Debt Position of Serbia," Book Chapters, in: Paulino Teixeira & António Portugal Duarte & Srdjan Redzepagic & Dejan Eric (ed.), European Integration Process in Western Balkan Countries, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 26, pages 512-528, Institute of Economic Sciences.
    7. Ksenija Dumicic & Berislav Zmuk & Iris Mihajlovic, 2016. "Panel analysis of internet booking of travel and holiday accommodation indicators," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 14(1), pages 23-38.
    8. Nicolae-Bogdan IANC & Adrian-Marius IONESCU, 2021. "Do Central and Eastern Countries benefit from ECB’s unconventional monetary policies?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2898, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    9. Morar Triandafil, Cristina & Poanta, Dorina, 2011. "Central and East European Corporate Finance: Between Commonality and Heterogeneity," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 132-161, September.
    10. Owusu Benjamin, 2021. "Fiscal Sustainability Hypothesis Test in Central and Eastern Europe: A Panel Data Perspective," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 8(55), pages 285-312, January.

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