IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/91298.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating a fiscal reaction function for the South East European countries

Author

Listed:
  • Tashevska, Biljana
  • Trpkova-Nestorovska, Marija
  • Trenovski, Borce

Abstract

The global economic crisis caused a deterioration in the public finances of the South East European countries. Hence, the issue of fiscal sustainability became important not only for the developed EU countries (considering the European debt crisis), but also for the SEE region. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the existing literature on fiscal sustainability in the South East Europe by estimating a panel fiscal reaction function. The paper analyses how primary government balances adjust to increasing government debt and to the economic cycle. The main goal is to test whether fiscal policy in these countries tends to react to a sufficient extent to increasing public debt in order to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability. The results of the empirical analysis imply a pro-cyclical fiscal policy in the SEE countries. Regarding fiscal sustainability, the results show that initially a rise in the debt level is followed by a deterioration of the primary balance, which is not consistent with sustainability of public finances. However, in the medium run primary balance seems to adjust to rising debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Tashevska, Biljana & Trpkova-Nestorovska, Marija & Trenovski, Borce, 2017. "Estimating a fiscal reaction function for the South East European countries," MPRA Paper 91298, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:91298
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/91298/2/MPRA_paper_91298.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Evan Tanner & Alberto Ramos, 2003. "Fiscal sustainability and monetary versus fiscal dominance: evidence from Brazil, 1991-2000," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(7), pages 859-873.
    2. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2013. "Panel Vector Autoregressive Models: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 9380, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. António Afonso & João Jalles, 2011. "Appraising fiscal reaction functions," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(4), pages 3320-3330.
    4. Matthieu Llorca & Srdjan Redzepagic, 2008. "Debt sustainability in the EU New Member States: empirical evidence from a panel of eight Central and East European countries," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 159-172.
    5. Bettina Fincke & Alfred Greiner, 2012. "How to assess debt sustainability? Some theory and empirical evidence for selected euro area countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(28), pages 3717-3724, October.
    6. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2012:i:4:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Emilia Câmpeanu & Andreea Stoian, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Reaction in the Short Term for Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in the Long Runin Central and Eastern European Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(6), pages 501-518, December.
    8. Guido Baldi & Karsten Staehr, 2013. "The European debt crisis and fiscal reaction functions in Europe 2000–2012," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2013-5, Bank of Estonia, revised 24 Jul 2013.
    9. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-819, September.
    10. Anita Angelovska Bezovska & Jane Bogoev & Ana Mitreska & Maja Kadievska Vojnovik, 2011. "Investigating the Cyclical Behavior of Fiscal Policy in the Republic of Macedonia during the Period of Transition," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 13(1), pages 57-104, April.
    11. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 2001. "Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1221-1238, December.
    12. Vladimir Andrić & Milojko Arsić & Aleksandra Nojković, 2016. "Public Debt Sustainability In Serbia Before And During The Global Financial Crisis," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, vol. 61(210), pages 47-78, July - Se.
    13. Borce Trenovski & Biljana Tashevska, 2015. "Fiscal or monetary dominance in a small, open economy with fixed exchange rate – the case of the Republic of Macedonia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 33(1), pages 125-145.
    14. Charl Jooste & Alfredo Cuevas & Ian C. Stuart & Philippe Burger, 2011. "Fiscal sustainability and the fiscal reaction function for South Africa," IMF Working Papers 2011/069, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Oya Celasun & Xavier Debrun & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(3), pages 1-3.
    16. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2016. "The elusive character of fiscal sustainability," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(28), pages 2651-2664, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ko, Jun-Hyung & Morita, Hiroshi, 2015. "Fiscal sustainability and regime shifts in Japan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 364-375.
    2. Paniagua, Jordi & Sapena, Juan & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2017. "Fiscal sustainability in EMU countries: A continued fiscal commitment?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 85-97.
    3. Aldama, Pierre & Creel, Jérôme, 2019. "Fiscal policy in the US: Sustainable after all?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 471-479.
    4. Markus Reischmann, 2016. "Empirische Studien zu Staatsverschuldung und fiskalischen Transferzahlungen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 63, April.
    5. Niklas Potrafke & Markus Reischmann, 2015. "Fiscal Transfers and Fiscal Sustainability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(5), pages 975-1005, August.
    6. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Rafał Trzeciakowski, 2015. "Windfall of Low Interest Payments and Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro Area: Analysis through Panel Fiscal Reaction Functions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(4), pages 475-510, November.
    7. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Žďárek, Václav, 2017. "Fiscal reaction function and fiscal fatigue: evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2036, European Central Bank.
    8. Aldama Pierre & Jérôme Creel, 2016. "Why fiscal regimes matter for fiscal sustainability analysis : an application to France," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2016-15, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    9. Paret, Anne-Charlotte, 2017. "Debt sustainability in emerging market countries: Some policy guidelines from a fan-chart approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 26-45.
    10. Park, Danbee & Sung, Taeyoon, 2020. "Foreign debt, global liquidity, and fiscal sustainability," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    11. Beqiraj, Elton & Fedeli, Silvia & Forte, Francesco, 2018. "Public debt sustainability: An empirical study on OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 238-248.
    12. Shijaku, Gerti, 2012. "Sustainability of fiscal policy: the case of Albania," MPRA Paper 79089, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Campos, Eduardo Lima & Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2017. "A time-varying fiscal reaction function for Brazil," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 795, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    14. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Díaz-Roldán, Carmen & Esteve, Vicente, 2014. "Deficit sustainability, and monetary versus fiscal dominance: The case of Spain, 1850–2000," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 924-937.
    15. Creel, Jerome & Bihan, Herve Le, 2006. "Using structural balance data to test the fiscal theory of the price level: Some international evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 338-360, June.
    16. María Lorena Marí Del Cristo & Marta Gómez-Puig, 2013. "Fiscal dynamics in a dollarized, oil-exporting country: Ecuador," Working Papers 13-06, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    17. Martin Larch & João Nogueira Martins, 2007. "Fiscal indicators - Proceedings of the the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Workshop held on 22 September 2006 in Brussels," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 297, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    18. Kyung-woo Lee & Jong-Hee Kim & Taeyoon Sung, 2018. "A test of fiscal sustainability in the EU countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(5), pages 1170-1196, October.
    19. Fan, Jingwen & Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong, 2013. "The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level - identification and testing for the UK in the 1970s," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2013/12, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    20. Jérôme Creel & Francesco Saraceno, 2008. "Wealth Effects and Public Debt in an Endogenous Growth Model. Banca d'Italia Public Finance Workshop 'Fiscal Sustainability : Analytical Developments and Emerging Policy Issues', Perugia, 3-5 April 20," Post-Print hal-01053226, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal sustainability; fiscal reaction function; South East European countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:91298. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.