Quantitative approaches to fiscal sustainability analysis : a new World Bank tool applied to Turkey
Fiscal sustainability analysis (FSA) is an important component of macroeconomic analysis. The authors review various quantitative approaches to FSA with a major objective to bring these approaches together and to present a user-friendly tool for FSA that reflects modern developments. They combine a dynamic simulations approach with a simplified version of the steady-state consistency approach. They also incorporate two different methods to deal with uncertainty: user-defined stress tests and stochastic simulations. The tool goes further by evaluating the required fiscal adjustment as a consequence of the stochastic realizations of the exogenous variables. Furthermore, the fiscal sustainability tool incorporates an endogenous debt feedback rule for the primary surplus, a fiscal policy reaction function. Besides outlining the theoretical framework, the authors also present a case study for Turkey.
|Date of creation:||01 Mar 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433|
Phone: (202) 477-1234
Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Willem H. Buiter, 1990. "Principles of Budgetary and Financial Policy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262524139, March.
- Craig Burrnside, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice : A Handbook," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7495, November.
- Oya Celasun & Xavier Debrun & Jonathan David Ostry, 2006.
"Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries; A "Fan-Chart" Approach,"
IMF Working Papers
06/67, International Monetary Fund.
- Oya Celasun & Xavier Debrun & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(3), pages 3.
- Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
- Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2001.
"Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1155-1197, December.
- Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 1999. "Prospective deficits and the asian currency crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2174, The World Bank.
- Burnside, C. & Eichenbaum, M. & Rebelo, S., 1998. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," RCER Working Papers 458, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1998. "Prospective deficits and the Asian currency crisis," Working Paper Series WP-98-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1998. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1998. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 2015, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ritu Anand & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1988. "Inflation, External Debt and Financial Sector Reform: A Quantitative Approach To Consistent Fiscal Policy With An Application to Turkey," NBER Working Papers 2731, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Peter S. Heller, 2005. "Understanding Fiscal Space," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 05/4, International Monetary Fund.
- Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1985. "Trade reform, aggregate investment and capital flight : On credibility and the value of information," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 369-372.
- Anand, Ritu & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1989. "Inflation and the Financing of Government Expenditure: An Introductory Analysis with an Application to Turkey," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 3(1), pages 17-38, January.
- Hana Polackova Brixi & Allen Schick, 2002. "Government at Risk : Contingent Liabilities and Fiscal Risk," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 15233, November.
- Gill, Indermit & Pinto, Brian, 2005. "Public debt in developing countries : has the market-based model worked?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3674, The World Bank.
- Thomas Baunsgaard, 2003. "Fiscal Policy in Nigeria; Any Role for Rules?," IMF Working Papers 03/155, International Monetary Fund.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Managing Macroeconomic Crises," NBER Working Papers 10907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4169. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.