IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gai/rpaper/125.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Theoretical foundations of fiscal gap as a long-term fiscal sustainability indicator and its estimates for Russia

Author

Listed:
  • Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev

    (Russian Foreign Trade Academy)

  • Eugene Goryunov

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

  • Laurence Kotlikoff

    (Boston University)

Abstract

Fiscal gap is an indicator of long run sustainability of government finance. It is used for assessment of the extent to which current fiscal policy is able to keep government budget solvent in the longer period. Fiscal gap is derived from intertemporal budget constraint which connects flows of budget outlays and receipts aggregated along decades. Fiscal gap is defined as a sum of current government debt and present value of future primary deficit flow. In order to get an estimate of Russia’s general government fiscal gap we consider three scenarios which are based on different assumptions regarding demographic trends, productivity growth, extractable reserves of oil and natural gas, long term price of oil and natural gas etc.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev & Eugene Goryunov & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2015. "Theoretical foundations of fiscal gap as a long-term fiscal sustainability indicator and its estimates for Russia," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 168P, pages 1-58.
    • Handle: RePEc:gai:rpaper:125
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.iep.ru/files/RePEc/gai/rpaper/125Sinelnikov.pdf
    File Function: Revised version, 2015
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. G. Idrisov & S. Sinelnikov-Murylev., 2013. "Budget Policy and Economic Growth," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 8.
    2. Ms. Jocelyn Horne, 1991. "Indicators of Fiscal Sustainability," IMF Working Papers 1991/005, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Halvor Mehlum & Karl Moene & Ragnar Torvik, 2006. "Institutions and the Resource Curse," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(508), pages 1-20, January.
    4. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts: A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5, pages 55-110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Jaejoon Woo & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(328), pages 705-739, October.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 151-170, August.
    7. Richard W. Evans & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kerk L. Phillips, 2012. "Game Over: Simulating Unsustainable Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 177-202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Stephen Cecchetti & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2011. "The real effects of debt," BIS Working Papers 352, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    10. Giammarioli, Nicola & Nickel, Christiane & Rother, Philipp & Vidal, Jean-Pierre, 2007. "Assessing fiscal soundness: theory and practice," Occasional Paper Series 56, European Central Bank.
    11. Manasse, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 2009. ""Rules of thumb" for sovereign debt crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 192-205, July.
    12. Baum, Anja & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2013. "Debt and growth: New evidence for the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 809-821.
    13. Goryunov, Eugene & Kazakova, Marija & Kotlikoff, Laurence J. & Mamedov, Arseny & Nesterova, Kristina & Nazarov, Vladimir & Grišina, Elena & Trunin, Pavel V. & Shpenev, Alexey, 2013. "Russia's Fiscal Gap," EconStor Preprints 121938, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
      • Eugene Goryunov & Maria Kazakova & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Arseny Mamedov & Kristina Nesterova & Vladimir Nazarov & Elena Grishina & Pavel Trunin & Alexey Shpenev, 2013. "Russia's Fiscal Gap," NBER Working Papers 19608, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    15. Caner, Mehmet & Grennes,Thomas & Koehler-Geib, Fritzi, 2010. "Finding the tipping point -- when sovereign debt turns bad," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5391, The World Bank.
    16. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Bernd Raffelhuschen, 1999. "Population aging and fiscal policy in Europe and the United States," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 10-20.
    17. Robinson, James A. & Torvik, Ragnar & Verdier, Thierry, 2006. "Political foundations of the resource curse," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 447-468, April.
    18. Mr. Evan C Tanner & Issouf Samaké, 2006. "Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt: A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey," IMF Working Papers 2006/295, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
    20. Alan J. Auerbach, 1994. "The US Fiscal Problem: Where We Are, How We Got Here, and Where We're Going," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 141-186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Mr. Nigel A Chalk & Mr. Richard Hemming, 2000. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 2000/081, International Monetary Fund.
    22. G. Idrisov & S. Sinelnikov-Murylev., 2014. "Forming Sources of Long-run Growth: How to Understand Them?," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 3.
    23. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Sunil Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2011. "Achieving growth amid fiscal imbalances: the real effects of debt," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 145-196.
    24. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Kent Smetters, 2003. "Fiscal and generational imbalances: new budget measures for new budget priorities," Policy Discussion Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Dec.
    25. Mr. Bjoern Rother & Ms. Ivetta Hakobyan & Mrs. Monica B de Bolle, 2006. "The Level and Composition of Public Sector Debt in Emerging Market Crises," IMF Working Papers 2006/186, International Monetary Fund.
    26. S. Drobyshevsky & S. Sinelnikov-Murylev & I. Sokolov., 2011. "Transformation of Budgetary Policy in Russia during the 2000s: in Quest of National Fiscal Sustainability," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 1.
    27. Волчкова Н. & Суслова Е., 2008. "Человеческий Капитал, Промышленный Рост И Ресурсное Проклятие," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 12(2), pages 217-238.
    28. Christine de la Maisonneuve & Joaquim Oliveira Martins, 2013. "A Projection Method for Public Health and Long-Term Care Expenditures," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1048, OECD Publishing.
    29. Hana Polackova Brixi & Allen Schick, 2002. "Government at Risk : Contingent Liabilities and Fiscal Risk," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15233, December.
    30. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
    31. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Rossana Merola, 2012. "Fiscal Consolidation: Part 1. How Much is Needed and How to Reduce Debt to a Prudent Level?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 932, OECD Publishing.
    32. Nicola Giammarioli & Christiane Nickel & Philipp Rother & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2007. "Assessing fiscal soundness - Theory and practice," Occasional Paper Series 56, European Central Bank.
    33. Oya Celasun & Xavier Debrun & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(3), pages 1-3.
    34. S. Guriev & G. Egorov & K. Sonin., 2007. "Media Freedom, Bureaucratic Incentives, and the Resource Curse," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 4.
    35. Kent Smetters & Jagadeesh Gokhale, 2003. "Fiscal and Generational Imbalances: New Budget Measures for New Budget Priorities," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 52628, September.
    36. Christian Hagist & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2009. "Who’s going broke? Comparing growth in Public healthcare expenditure in Ten OECD Countries," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 188(1), pages 55-72, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Arcady Solovyev, 2016. "Demographic Risks of the Pension Reform in the Russian Federation," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(1), pages 162-174.
    2. Igor Yu. Arlashkin, 2021. "Clustering of Russian Regions by Level of Debt Sustainability," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 5, pages 108-124, October.
    3. Goryunov, Evgeny & Kotlikoff, Lawrence & Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergey, 2015. "The fiscal gap: An estimate for Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 240-256.
    4. D. Tverdokhlibova, 2018. "Theory and practice of the use of fiscal sustainability indicators," Economy and Forecasting, Valeriy Heyets, issue 3, pages 7-47.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kazakova, Maria & Nesterova, Kristina, 2015. "Long-Term Forecast of the Main Parameters of the Budgetary System of Russia," Published Papers 2309, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    2. Kazakova, Maria & Trunin, Pavel, 2015. "Long-Term Prognosis of Basic Demographic and Macroeconomic Indicators in Russia," Published Papers 2308, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    3. Bodrova, Vera & Gvozdeva, Margarita & Kazakova, Maria, 2015. "Methods of Long-term Forecasting: Comparative Analysis and Foreign Experience of Applying," Published Papers 2310, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    4. Goryunov, Yevgeniy (Горюнов, Евгений), 2016. "Theoretical foundations, properties and interpretation of the budget gap indicators [Теоретические Основы, Свойства И Интерпретация Индикаторов Бюджетного Разрыва]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 2, pages 112-132, April.
    5. Goryunov, Evgeny & Kotlikoff, Lawrence & Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergey, 2015. "The fiscal gap: An estimate for Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 240-256.
    6. Markus Eberhardt & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "This Time They're Different: Heterogeneity;and Nonlinearity in the Relationship;between Debt and Growth," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 92, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    7. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2015. "Public debt and growth: Heterogeneity and non-linearity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 45-58.
    8. Panizza, Ugo & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2014. "Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 21-41.
    9. Markus Eberhardt, 2013. "Nonlinearities in the Relationship between Debt and Growth: Evidence from Co-Summability Testing," Discussion Papers 2013/06, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    10. Falilou Fall & Debra Bloch & Jean-Marc Fournier & Peter Hoeller, 2015. "Prudent debt targets and fiscal frameworks," OECD Economic Policy Papers 15, OECD Publishing.
    11. Robert A Buckle & Amy A Cruickshank, 2013. "The Requirements for Long-Run Fiscal Sustainability," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/20, New Zealand Treasury.
    12. Boukhatem, Jamel & Kaabi, Malèk, 2015. "Dette publique, qualité institutionnelle et croissance économique dans les pays de la région MENA : analyse par la méthode des moments généralisés [Public debt, institutional quality and economic g," MPRA Paper 65756, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2015.
    13. Dreger, Christian & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2013. "Does euro area membership affect the relation between GDP growth and public debt?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 481-486.
    14. Law, Siong Hook & Ng, Chee Hung & Kutan, Ali M. & Law, Zhi Kei, 2021. "Public debt and economic growth in developing countries: Nonlinearity and threshold analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 26-40.
    15. Vicente Esteve & Cecilio Tamarit, 2018. "Public debt and economic growth in Spain, 1851–2013," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 12(2), pages 219-249, May.
    16. Séverine MENGUY, 2019. "Does public indebtedness constrain or can it favor economic growth? A simple analytical modeling," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 1-29.
    17. Łukasz Rawdanowicz, 2014. "Choosing the pace of fiscal consolidation," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2013(1), pages 91-119.
    18. Antonio Afonso & Jose Alves, 2015. "The Role of Government Debt in Economic Growth," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 215(4), pages 9-26, December.
    19. Haytham Y.M. Ewaida, 2017. "The Impact of Sovereign Debt on Growth: An Empirical Study on GIIPS versus JUUSD Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2A), pages 607-633.
    20. Balázs Égert, 2015. "Public debt, economic growth and nonlinear effects: Myth or reality?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 226-238.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russian economy; public finance; budget sustainability; fiscal gap; budget spending;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • H52 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Education
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gai:rpaper:125. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Aleksei Astakhov (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gaidaru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.