IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rujoec/v1y2015i3p240-256.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The fiscal gap: An estimate for Russia

Author

Listed:
  • Goryunov, Evgeny
  • Kotlikoff, Lawrence
  • Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergey

Abstract

The fiscal gap is an indicator of the long-term balance of public finance and is calculated based on the intertemporal government budget constraint, which links government tax revenues and expenditures over long intervals. The estimate of the fiscal gap for the Russian general government has been determined according to three scenarios with varying assumptions regarding demographic trends, productivity growth rates, oil and gas prices and the quantity of extractable reserves. The calculations show that the current fiscal policy cannot provide for the stability of public finance in the long run. The main factors of budget imbalances are the growth of pension and health care expenditures caused by demographic trends and the gradual decline in tax receipts from the oil and gas sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Goryunov, Evgeny & Kotlikoff, Lawrence & Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergey, 2015. "The fiscal gap: An estimate for Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 240-256.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rujoec:v:1:y:2015:i:3:p:240-256
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405473915000343
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ruje.2015.12.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. G. Idrisov & S. Sinelnikov-Murylev., 2013. "Budget Policy and Economic Growth," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 8.
    2. V. Mau., 2015. "Russia’s Social and Economic Policy in 2014: Finding New Frontiers," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 2.
    3. A. Ulyukaev & V. Mau., 2015. "From Economic Crisis to Economic Growth, or How to Prevent the Crisis from Turning into Stagnation," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 4.
    4. Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev & Eugene Goryunov & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2015. "Theoretical foundations of fiscal gap as a long-term fiscal sustainability indicator and its estimates for Russia," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 168P, pages 1-58.
    5. Ms. Jocelyn Horne, 1991. "Indicators of Fiscal Sustainability," IMF Working Papers 1991/005, International Monetary Fund.
    6. V. Mau & A. Ulyukaev., 2014. "Global Crisis and Trends of Economic Development," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 11.
    7. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts: A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5, pages 55-110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev & Ilya Sokolov & Sergey Drobyshevsky & Vladimir Nazarov, 2010. "Budget Policy Evolution in Russia in 2000s: searching for the budget system financial stability," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 147P.
    9. Richard W. Evans & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kerk L. Phillips, 2012. "Game Over: Simulating Unsustainable Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 177-202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    12. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Bernd Raffelhuschen, 1999. "Population aging and fiscal policy in Europe and the United States," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 10-20.
    13. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
    14. Alan J. Auerbach, 1994. "The US Fiscal Problem: Where We Are, How We Got Here, and Where We're Going," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 141-186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. G. Idrisov & S. Sinelnikov-Murylev., 2014. "Forming Sources of Long-run Growth: How to Understand Them?," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 3.
    16. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Kent Smetters, 2003. "Fiscal and generational imbalances: new budget measures for new budget priorities," Policy Discussion Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Dec.
    17. V. Mau., 2014. "Waiting for a New Model of Growth: Russia’s Social and Economic Development in 2013," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 2.
    18. Kent Smetters & Jagadeesh Gokhale, 2003. "Fiscal and Generational Imbalances: New Budget Measures for New Budget Priorities," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 52628, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Valery P. Chichkanov & Elena V. Chistova & Alexander N. Tyrsin, 2017. "How to Raise Pensions by Legalizing Informal Employment," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 13(4), pages 89-99.
    2. Elena Stupnikova & Tatyana Sukhadolets, 2019. "Construction Sector Role in Gross Fixed Capital Formation: Empirical Data from Russia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-16, May.
    3. Kudrin, Alexey & Sokolov, Ilya, 2017. "Fiscal maneuver and restructuring of the Russian economy," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 221-239.
    4. Huseynov, Nijat, 2017. "The Classification of Public Expenditure in Post-Soviet Union States and OECD Member Countries," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 62(3), pages 380-400.
    5. Kudrin, Alexey & Sokolov, Ilya, 2017. "Fiscal maneuver and restructuring of the Russian economy," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 221-239.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev & Eugene Goryunov & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2015. "Theoretical foundations of fiscal gap as a long-term fiscal sustainability indicator and its estimates for Russia," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 168P, pages 1-58.
    2. Goryunov, Yevgeniy (Горюнов, Евгений), 2016. "Theoretical foundations, properties and interpretation of the budget gap indicators [Теоретические Основы, Свойства И Интерпретация Индикаторов Бюджетного Разрыва]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 2, pages 112-132, April.
    3. Kazakova, Maria & Nesterova, Kristina, 2015. "Long-Term Forecast of the Main Parameters of the Budgetary System of Russia," Published Papers 2309, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    4. Kazakova, Maria & Trunin, Pavel, 2015. "Long-Term Prognosis of Basic Demographic and Macroeconomic Indicators in Russia," Published Papers 2308, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    5. Bodrova, Vera & Gvozdeva, Margarita & Kazakova, Maria, 2015. "Methods of Long-term Forecasting: Comparative Analysis and Foreign Experience of Applying," Published Papers 2310, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    6. Timothy C. Irwin, 2015. "Defining The Government'S Debt And Deficit," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 711-732, September.
    7. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Kent Smetters, 2006. "Fiscal and Generational Imbalances: An Update," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 20, pages 193-223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Martin Larch & João Nogueira Martins, 2007. "Fiscal indicators - Proceedings of the the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Workshop held on 22 September 2006 in Brussels," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 297, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    9. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "A Lesson from the South for Fiscal Policy in the US and Other Advanced Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 53(3), pages 407-430, September.
    10. Abderrahim Chibi & Sidi Mohamed Chekouri & Mohamed Benbouziane, 2019. "Debt sustainability, structural breaks and nonlinear fiscal adjustment: empirical evidence from Algeria," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 66(4), pages 369-397, December.
    11. David Rosnick & Dean Baker, 2012. "Pension Liabilities: Fear Tactics and Serious Policy," World Economic Review, World Economics Association, vol. 2012(1), pages 1-57, September.
    12. Hagist, Christian & Klusen, Norbert & Plate, Andreas & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2005. "Social health insurance: The major driver of unsustainable fiscal policy?," FZG Discussion Papers 1, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    13. Goryunov, Eugene & Kazakova, Marija & Kotlikoff, Laurence J. & Mamedov, Arseny & Nesterova, Kristina & Nazarov, Vladimir & Grišina, Elena & Trunin, Pavel V. & Shpenev, Alexey, 2013. "Russia's Fiscal Gap," EconStor Preprints 121938, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
      • Eugene Goryunov & Maria Kazakova & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Arseny Mamedov & Kristina Nesterova & Vladimir Nazarov & Elena Grishina & Pavel Trunin & Alexey Shpenev, 2013. "Russia's Fiscal Gap," NBER Working Papers 19608, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Christian Hagist & Norbert Klusen & Andreas Plate & Bernd Raffelhüschen, 2005. "Social Health Insurance - the Major Driver of Unsustainable Fiscal Policy?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1574, CESifo.
    15. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Ferhan Salman, 2004. "Balancing Turkey�s Intertemporal Budget Gap," Working Papers 0408, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    17. Beltrametti, Luca & Della Valle, Matteo, 2012. "The Implicit Pension Debt: Its Meaning and an International Comparison - Il debito pensionistico: significato e confronti internazionali," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 65(1), pages 15-38.
    18. Braun, R. Anton & Joines, Douglas H., 2015. "The implications of a graying Japan for government policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1-23.
    19. Antoine Bommier & Ronald Lee & Tim Miller & Stéphane Zuber, 2010. "Who Wins and Who Loses? Public Transfer Accounts for US Generations Born 1850 to 2090," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(1), pages 1-26, March.
    20. Damla Haciibrahimoglu & Pinar Derin-Gure, 2013. "Generational Accounting in Turkey," ERC Working Papers 1301, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Jan 2013.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; fiscal sustainability; demographic forecast; oil and gas revenues; pension system.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • H52 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Education
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rujoec:v:1:y:2015:i:3:p:240-256. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/russian-journal-of-economics .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.