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Population aging and fiscal policy in Europe and the United States

Author

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  • Jagadeesh Gokhale
  • Bernd Raffelhüschen

Abstract

The authors report each country’s total intertemporal public liability as the sum of its explicit outstanding debt and the present values of its implicit liabilities—the excess of projected transfers and government purchases over tax revenues. They find rapid, persistent population aging in almost every European country. They also calculate that for European countries with the highest implicit liabilities, eliminating total intertemporal liabilities would require tax increases exceeding 4 percent of GDP. Compared to Europe, the future challenges of population aging and fiscal problems in the United States seem far more benign.

Suggested Citation

  • Jagadeesh Gokhale & Bernd Raffelhüschen, 1999. "Population aging and fiscal policy in Europe and the United States," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 10-20.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcer:y:1999:i:qiv:p:10-20
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    File URL: http://www.clevelandfed.org/Research/review/1999/99-q4-gokhale.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts: A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Chapters,in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5, pages 55-110 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Nicola Sartor & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Willi Leibfritz, 1999. "Generational Accounts for Italy," NBER Chapters,in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 299-324 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Raffelhuschen, B., 1999. "Generational Accounting in Europe," Norway; Department of Economics, University of Bergen 196, Department of Economics, University of Bergen.
    4. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Benjamin R. Page & John Sturrock, 1999. "Generational Accounts for the United States: An Update," NBER Chapters,in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 489-518 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Willi Leibfritz, 1999. "Generational Accounting around the World," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number auer99-1, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eugene Goryunov & Maria Kazakova & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Arseny Mamedov & Kristina Nesterova & Vladimir Nazarov & Elena Grishina & Pavel Trunin & Alexey Shpenev, 2013. "Russia's Fiscal Gap," NBER Working Papers 19608, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
      • Goryunov, Eugene & Kazakova, Marija & Kotlikoff, Laurence J. & Mamedov, Arseny & Nesterova, Kristina & Nazarov, Vladimir & Grišina, Elena & Trunin, Pavel V. & Shpenev, Alexey, 2013. "Russia's Fiscal Gap," EconStor Preprints 121938, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    2. Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev & Eugene Goryunov & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2015. "Theoretical foundations of fiscal gap as a long-term fiscal sustainability indicator and its estimates for Russia," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, pages 1-58.
    3. repec:eee:rujoec:v:1:y:2015:i:3:p:240-256 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Holmøy, Erling & Strøm, Birger, 2013. "Computable General Equilibrium Assessments of Fiscal Sustainability in Norway," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.

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