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Computable General Equilibrium Assessments of Fiscal Sustainability in Norway

  • Holmøy, Erling
  • Strøm, Birger
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    The chapter demonstrates how the computable general equilibrium model MSG6, combined with special models of government expenditures, has been used to assess the long-run fiscal sustainability in Norway. The simulations suggest that Norway faces a severe fiscal sustainability problem in the long run, despite an exceptionally strong fiscal position at present. This result is found to be relatively robust to exogenous variations in productivity growth, petroleum prices, longevity, immigration and the health of the elderly. The chapter also discusses the fiscal effects of various policy responses, including the pension reform of 2011, improvements in the standards of public health services and care for the elderly, as well as a tighter fiscal policy rule. The simulation experiments demonstrate that general equilibrium mechanisms contribute significantly to the total effects.

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    This chapter was published in:
  • Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), 2012. "Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1, 05.
  • This item is provided by Elsevier in its series Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling with number v:1:y:2013:i:c:p:105-158.
    Handle: RePEc:eee:hacchp:v:1:y:2013:i:c:p:105-158
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    3. Bjerkholt, Olav, 1998. "Interaction between model builders and policy makers in the Norwegian tradition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 317-339, July.
    4. Timothy J. Kehoe, 2003. "An Evaluation of the Performance of Applied General Equilibrium Models of the Impact of NAFTA," Levine's Working Paper Archive 506439000000000525, David K. Levine.
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    8. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
    9. Fehr, Hans & Habermann, Christian, 2006. "Pension reform and demographic uncertainty: the case of Germany," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(01), pages 69-90, March.
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    11. N. G. Mankiw., 2009. "The Macroeconomist as Scientist and Engineer," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 5.
    12. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Bernd Raffelhüschen, 1999. "Population aging and fiscal policy in Europe and the United States," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 10-20.
    13. Fehr, Hans & Sterkeby, Wenche I. & Thøgersen, Øystein, 2000. "Social security reforms and early retirement," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 24, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
    14. Cronin, David & Daniel McCoy,, 2000. "Fiscal Sustainability When Time is on Your Side," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/00, Central Bank of Ireland.
    15. Erling Holmøy & Torbjørn Hægeland, 1997. "Aggregate Productivity Effects of Technology Shocks in a Model of Heterogeneous Firms: The Importance of Equilibrium Adjustments," Discussion Papers 198, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    16. Martin Feldstein, 2005. "Structural Reform of Social Security," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 33-55, Spring.
    17. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kent Smetters & Jan Walliser, 2001. "Finding a Way Out of America's Demographic Dilemma," NBER Working Papers 8258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Aaberge, Rolf & Dagsvik, John K & Strom, Steinar, 1995. " Labor Supply Responses and Welfare Effects of Tax Reforms," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(4), pages 635-59, December.
    19. Torben M. Andersen & Lars Haagen Pedersen, 2006. "Financial Restraints in a Mature Welfare State--The Case of Denmark," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 313-329, Autumn.
    20. Steigum, E.Jr., 1992. "Accounting for Long-Run Effects of Fiscal Policy by Means of Computable Overlapping Generations Models," Papers 05-92, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration-.
    21. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2010. "Johansen's contribution to CGE modelling: originator and guiding light for 50 years," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-203, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    22. Feldstein, Martin, 2005. "Structural Reform of Social Security," Scholarly Articles 2794830, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    23. Kyrre Stensnes, 2007. "Equity versus Efficiency in Public Pension Schemes. Microsimulating the Trade-off," Discussion Papers 515, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    24. Klette, Tor Jakob, 1999. "Market Power, Scale Economies and Productivity: Estimates from a Panel of Establishment Data," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(4), pages 451-76, December.
    25. Fehr, Hans, 1999. "Pension reform during the demographic transition," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 8, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
    26. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Kent Smetters, and Jan Walliser, 2001. "The Coming Generational Storm," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 276, Society for Computational Economics.
    27. Olav Bjerkholt, 2009. "The making of the Leif Johansen multi-sectoral model," History of Economic Ideas, Fabrizio Serra Editore, Pisa - Roma, vol. 17(3), pages 103-126.
    28. A. Roux, 1993. "The Public Debt: A Medium-term Perspective," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 61(4), pages 10-29, December.
    29. Benz, Ulrich & Fetzer, Stefan, 2004. "Indicators for Measuring Fiscal Sustainability: A Comparative Application of the OECD-Method and Generational Accounting," Discussion Papers 118, Institut für Finanzwissenschaft, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg.
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