Population ageing and fiscal sustainability: An integrated micro-macro analysis of required tax changes
Most studies on the economic consequences of ageing rely on Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models that account for feedback mechanisms through changes in relative prices, tax bases etc. However, since individual labour supply behaviour is considered to be a key element in CGEanalyses of fiscal sustainability problems, the results of these analyses may depend crucially on how the labour supply behaviour is modelled. The current practice of combining a simplified representation of the tax and transfer system with the labour supply behaviour of a few representative agents may render a misleading description of incentives and revenue effects. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of using an alternative strategy by integrating a detailed microeconometric model of labour supply, that is sufficiently flexible to capture a large variety of labour supply responses, with a large-scale CGE model. The integrated micro-macro CGE model is employed to explore how endogenous household labour supply behaviour affects and interacts with sustainability problems in Norway. The empirical results suggest that the required increase in the future tax burden is less dramatic when the analysis allows for a flexible representation of the labour supply behaviour. Moreover, by replacing the current progressive tax system with a flat tax system it is found that the pressure on future public finances is significantly reduced.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Via Po 53 10124 Turin|
Web page: http://www.carloalberto.org/child-collegiocarloalberto/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- James J. Heckman, 1974.
"Effects of Child-Care Programs on Women's Work Effort,"
in: Marriage, Family, Human Capital, and Fertility, pages 136-169
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Heckman, James J, 1974. "Effects of Child-Care Programs on Women's Work Effort," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(2), pages S136-S163, Part II, .
- Pablo Antolín & Wim Suyker, 2001. "How Should Norway Respond to Ageing?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 296, OECD Publishing.
- Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino & Steinar Strøm, 2004.
"Do more equal slices shrink the cake? An empirical investigation of tax-transfer reform proposals in Italy,"
Journal of Population Economics,
Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(4), pages 767-785, December.
- Aaberge, Rolf & Colombino, Ugo & Strøm, Steinar, 2003. "Do More Equal Slices Shrink the Cake? An Empirical Investigation of Tax-Transfer Reform Proposals in Italy," Memorandum 37/2003, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Fehr, Hans, 1999. "Welfare Effects of Dynamic Tax Reforms," Beiträge zur Finanzwissenschaft, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, edition 1, volume 5, number urn:isbn:9783161470165, May.
- James M. Poterba, 1996. "Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 10," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number pote96-1, September.
- Aaberge, Rolf & Dagsvik, John K & Strom, Steinar, 1995. " Labor Supply Responses and Welfare Effects of Tax Reforms," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(4), pages 635-59, December.
- Heckman, James J & Lochner, Lance & Taber, Christopher, 1998.
"General-Equilibrium Treatment Effects: A Study of Tuition Policy,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 381-86, May.
- James J. Heckman & Lance Lochner & Christopher Taber, 1998. "General Equilibrium Treatment Effects: A Study of Tuition Policy," NBER Working Papers 6426, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Holmoy, Erling & Vennemo, Haakon, 1995. "A general equilibrium assessment of a suggested reform in capital income taxation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 531-556, December.
- Arthur van Soest, 1995. "Structural Models of Family Labor Supply: A Discrete Choice Approach," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(1), pages 63-88.
- Klette, T.J., 1998.
"Market Power, Scale Economies and Productivity: Estimates from a Panel of Establishment Data,"
15/1998, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Klette, Tor Jakob, 1999. "Market Power, Scale Economies and Productivity: Estimates from a Panel of Establishment Data," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(4), pages 451-76, December.
- Shoven, John B & Whalley, John, 1984. "Applied General-Equilibrium Models of Taxation and International Trade: An Introduction and Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 1007-51, September.
- Aaberge, Rolf & Colombino, Ugo & Strom, Steinar, 1999. "Labour Supply in Italy: An Empirical Analysis of Joint Household Decisions, with Taxes and Quantity Constraints," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 403-22, July-Aug..
- Hans Fehr & Wenche Irén Sterkeby & Øystein Thøgersen, 2003.
"Social security reforms and early retirement,"
Journal of Population Economics,
Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 16(2), pages 345-361, 05.
- Fehr, H. & Sterkeby, W.I. & Thogersen, O., 2000. "Social Security Reforms and Early Retirement," Papers 16/00, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration-.
- Fehr, Hans & Sterkeby, Wenche I. & Thøgersen, Øystein, 2000. "Social security reforms and early retirement," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 24, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
- William T. Dickens & Shelly J. Lundberg, 1985.
"Hours Restrictions and Labor Supply,"
NBER Working Papers
1638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Euwals, R.W. & van Soest, A.H.O., 1996.
"Desired and Actual Labour Supply of Unmarried Men and Women in the Netherlands,"
1996-23, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Euwals, Rob & van Soest, Arthur, 1999. "Desired and actual labour supply of unmarried men and women in the Netherlands," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 95-118, March.
- James J. Heckrnan, 1974. "Effects of Child-Care Programs on Women's Work Effort," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of the Family: Marriage, Children, and Human Capital, pages 491-524 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ugo Colombino & Steinar Strøm & Rolf Aaberge, 2000. "Labor supply responses and welfare effects from replacing current tax rules by a flat tax: Empirical evidence from Italy, Norway and Sweden," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 13(4), pages 595-621.
- Bye, Brita, 2002. "Taxation, Unemployment, and Growth: Dynamic Welfare Effects of "Green" Policies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-19, January.
- Leon Bettendorf & R. Beetsma & P. Broer, 2000. "The Budgetary And Economic Consequences Of Ageing In The Netherlands," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 372, Society for Computational Economics.
- Øystein Thøgersen, 2001. "Reforming social security: assessing the effects of alternative funding strategies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(12), pages 1531-1540.
- Dagsvik, John K, 1994. "Discrete and Continuous Choice, Max-Stable Processes, and Independence from Irrelevant Attributes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(5), pages 1179-1205, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpc:wplist:wp06_04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Giovanni Bert)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.