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The trend in female labour force participation; what can be expected for the future?

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  • Rob Euwals

    () (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

  • Marike Knoef

    (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

  • Daniël van Vuuren

    () (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

Abstract

During the 1980s and 1990s, the Netherlands experienced a strong increase in the labour force participation of women. This study investigates the increase of participation over the successive generations of women, and produces an educated guess for future participation. For this purpose, we estimate a binary age-period-cohort model for the generations born between 1925 and 1986, using data from the Dutch Labour Force Survey 1992-2004. The results indicate that the increasing level of education, the diminishing negative effect of children, and unobserved cohort effects have played an important role. According to our estimates, the increase in unobserved cohort effects has stopped since the generation born in 1955. This result is in line with results of studies on social norms and attitudes towards the combination of female employment and family responsibilities, which show a similar pattern over the successive generations. We conclude that the growth of female participation is likely to slow down in the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • Rob Euwals & Marike Knoef & Daniël van Vuuren, 2007. "The trend in female labour force participation; what can be expected for the future?," CPB Discussion Paper 93, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpb:discus:93
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    Cited by:

    1. Giovanna Vallanti & Angela Cipollone & Eleonora Patacchini, 2012. "Women Labor Market Performance in Europe: Trends and Shaping Factors," EcoMod2012 4353, EcoMod.
    2. Rob Euwals & Annemiek van Vuren & Daniël van Vuuren, 2011. "The impact of reforms on labour market exit probabilities," CPB Discussion Paper 179, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. Nicole Bosch & Anja Deelen & Rob Euwals, 2010. "Is Part-time Employment Here to Stay? Working Hours of Dutch Women over Successive Generations," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 24(1), pages 35-54, March.
    4. Kabátek, Jan, 2015. "Essays on public policy and household decision making," Other publications TiSEM 8cdb178e-ad98-42e5-a7e1-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Stefan Groot, 2011. "Wages in the Netherlands: a Micro Approach," ERSA conference papers ersa10p1526, European Regional Science Association.
    6. Piotr Lewandowski & Iga Magda & Jan Baran & Olena Fedyuk & Attila Bartha, 2013. "Gender Dimensions of the Labour Markets over the Past Two Decades," IBS Working Papers 1/2013, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    7. Vendrik Maarten & Cörvers Frank, 2009. "Male and female labour force participation: the role of dynamic adjustments to changes in labour demand, government policies and autonomous trends," Research Memorandum 036, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    8. Angela Cipollone & Eleonora Patacchini & Giovanna Vallanti, 2014. "Female labour market participation in Europe: novel evidence on trends and shaping factors," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-40, December.
    9. Andries de Grip & Didier Fouarge & Raymond Montizaan, 2013. "How Sensitive are Individual Retirement Expectations to Raising the Retirement Age?," De Economist, Springer, vol. 161(3), pages 225-251, September.
    10. Suzanne Kok & Nicole Bosch & Anja Deelen & Rob Euwals, 2011. "Migrant Women on the Labour Market," CPB Discussion Paper 180, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    11. Otto Kässi, 2014. "Earnings dynamics of men and women in Finland: permanent inequality versus earnings instability," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 451-477, March.
    12. Bettendorf, Leon J.H. & Jongen, Egbert L.W. & Muller, Paul, 2015. "Childcare subsidies and labour supply — Evidence from a large Dutch reform," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 112-123.
    13. Euwals, Rob & van Vuren, Annemiek & van Vuuren, Daniel, 2011. "The Decline of Early Retirement Pathways in the Netherlands: An Empirical Analysis for the Health Care Sector," IZA Discussion Papers 5810, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    14. Marike Knoef & Rob Alessie & Adriaan Kalwij, 2013. "Changes in the Income Distribution of the Dutch Elderly between 1989 and 2020: a Dynamic Microsimulation," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 59(3), pages 460-485, September.
    15. Bart Loog & Thomas Dohmen & Maarten Vendrik, 2013. "The Scope for Increasing Total Hours Worked," De Economist, Springer, vol. 161(2), pages 157-174, June.
    16. Stefan Groot & Henri de Groot, 2011. "Wage inequality in the Netherlands: Evidence, trends and explanations," CPB Discussion Paper 186, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    17. Pierre Koning & Max Raterink, 2013. "Re-employment Rates of Older Unemployed Workers: Decomposing the Effect of Birth Cohorts and Policy Changes," De Economist, Springer, vol. 161(3), pages 331-348, September.
    18. Almut Balleer & Ramon Gomez-Salvador & Jarkko Turunen, 2014. "Labour force participation across Europe: a cohort-based analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1385-1415, June.
    19. Henk-Wim de Boer & Egbert Jongen & Jan Kabatek, 2014. "The effectiveness of fiscal stimuli for working parents," CPB Discussion Paper 286, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    20. Cipollone, Angela & Patacchini, Eleonora & Vallanti, Giovanna, 2013. "Women Labor Market Participation in Europe: Novel Evidence on Trends and Shaping Factors," IZA Discussion Papers 7710, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    21. Kok, Suzanne & Bosch, Nicole & Deelen, Anja & Euwals, Rob, 2011. "Migrant Women on the Labour Market: On the Role of Home- and Host-Country Participation," IZA Discussion Papers 5817, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    22. Claudia Münch & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2009. "Education and Labor Market Activity of Women: An Age-Group Specific Empirical Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-099/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    23. An Liu & Inge Noback, 2011. "Determinants of regional female labour market participation in the Netherlands," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 47(3), pages 641-658, December.
    24. Angela Cipollone & Eleonora Patacchini & Giovanna Vallanti, 2013. "Women Labor Market Performance In Europe:Novel Evidence On Trends And Shaping Factors," Working Papers LuissLab 13107, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.

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    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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