Aging and Pensions in the Euro Area
Population aging will impose a significant burden on European pay-as-you-go pension systems. This study presents an estimate of this burden for the four largest euro-area countries and assesses alternative reform approaches. With prudent and realistic assumptions, the present value of future pension deficits through 2050 is estimated at 64% of GDP, adding to the current average explicit debt stock of around 70% of GDP. Feasible parametric reforms represent no durable solution, as they can balance pension systems at best temporarily. A comprehensive reform, including changes to current systems and a move towards partial funding, can ensure permanent financial sustainability of the public pension system.
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Volume (Year): 60 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
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