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Equilibrium Simulation with Microeconometric Models: A New Procedure with an Application to Income Support Policies

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  • Colombino, Ugo

    (University of Turin)

Abstract

Many microeconometric models of discrete labour supply include alternative-specific constants meant to account for (possibly besides other factors) the density or accessibility of particular types of jobs (e.g. part-time jobs vs. full-time jobs). The most common use of these models is the simulation of tax-transfer reforms. The simulation is usually interpreted as a comparative statics exercise, i.e. the comparison of different equilibria induced by different policy regimes. The simulation procedure, however, typically keeps fixed the estimated alternative-specific constants. In this note we argue that this procedure is not consistent with the comparative statics interpretation. Since the constants reflect the number of jobs and since the number of people willing to work changes as a response to the change in tax-transfer regime, the new equilibrium induced by the reform implies that the constants should also change. A structural interpretation of the alternative-specific constants leads to the development of a simulation procedure consistent with the comparative statics interpretation. The procedure is illustrated with a simulation of alternative reforms of the income support policies in Italy.

Suggested Citation

  • Colombino, Ugo, 2012. "Equilibrium Simulation with Microeconometric Models: A New Procedure with an Application to Income Support Policies," IZA Discussion Papers 6679, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6679
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino & Steinar Strøm, 2004. "Do more equal slices shrink the cake? An empirical investigation of tax-transfer reform proposals in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(4), pages 767-785, December.
    2. Dagsvik, John K, 2000. "Aggregation in Matching Markets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(1), pages 27-57, February.
    3. John Creedy & Alan Duncan, 2005. "Aggregating Labour Supply and Feedback Effects in Microsimulation," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 8(3), pages 277-290, September.
    4. Steinar StrØm & John K. Dagsvik, 2006. "Sectoral labour supply, choice restrictions and functional form," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(6), pages 803-826.
    5. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2005. "Discrete Hours Labour Supply Modelling: Specification, Estimation and Simulation," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 697-734, December.
    6. Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino, 2005. "Designing Optimal Taxes With a Microeconometric Model of Household Labour Supply," Public Economics 0510013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Colombino Ugo & Locatelli Marilena & Narazani Edlira & O'Donoghue Cathal, 2010. "Alternative Basic Income Mechanisms: An Evaluation Exercise With a Microeconometric Model," Basic Income Studies, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-31, September.
    8. Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino, 2014. "Labour Supply Models," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Cathal O’Donoghue (ed.), Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling, volume 127, pages 167-221, Emerald Publishing Ltd.
    9. Rolf Aaberge, 2007. "Gini’s nuclear family," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 5(3), pages 305-322, December.
    10. Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino, 2012. "Accounting for family background when designing optimal income taxes: a microeconometric simulation analysis," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 741-761, January.
    11. Massimo Baldini & Stefano Toso & Paolo Bosi, 2002. "Targeting welfare in Italy: old problems and perspectives on reform," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 51-75, March.
    12. Aaberge, Rolf & Dagsvik, John K & Strom, Steinar, 1995. " Labor Supply Responses and Welfare Effects of Tax Reforms," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(4), pages 635-659, December.
    13. Aaberge, Rolf & Colombino, Ugo & Strom, Steinar, 1999. "Labour Supply in Italy: An Empirical Analysis of Joint Household Decisions, with Taxes and Quantity Constraints," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 403-422, July-Aug..
    14. Dagsvik, John K, 1994. "Discrete and Continuous Choice, Max-Stable Processes, and Independence from Irrelevant Attributes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(5), pages 1179-1205, September.
    15. Claudio De Vincenti & Ruggero Paladini, 2009. "Personal Income Tax Design for Italy: Lessons from the Theory," Rivista italiana degli economisti, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 7-46.
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    Cited by:

    1. Colombino Ugo & Narazani Edlira, 2013. "Designing a Universal Income Support Mechanism for Italy: An Exploratory Tour," Basic Income Studies, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, July.
    2. Colombino Ugo & Narazani Edlira, 2012. "What’s Best for Women: Gender Based Taxation, Wage Subsidies or Basic Income?"," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201212, University of Turin.
    3. Colombino, Ugo & Narazani, Edlira, 2013. "What’s best for women: gender based taxation, wage subsidies or basic income?," EUROMOD Working Papers EM10/13, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    random utility; discrete choice; labour supply; policy simulation; alternative-specific constants; equilibrium simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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