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More realistic estimates of revenue changes from tax cuts

Procedures of revenue estimation of changes in the personal income tax are discussed. Using revenue estimates of the 2006 tax cuts in the personal income tax in Norway as an example, we show that estimates of costs of cuts differ substantially when different effects are brought into consideration. Estimates of revenue effects which take labor supply responses and effects through indirect taxation and corporate taxes into account are presented and contrasted with estimates obtained by current procedures. Our estimates indicate that a substantial part of the initial outlay is returned; approximately 56 percent comes back as increased tax revenues from other tax bases and increased personal income tax following from labor supply adjustments.

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Paper provided by Statistics Norway, Research Department in its series Discussion Papers with number 545.

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Date of creation: May 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:545
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  1. John Creedy & Alan Duncan, 2001. "Aggregating labour supply and feedback effects in microsimulation," IFS Working Papers W01/24, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  2. Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino, 2005. "Designing Optimal Taxes With a Microeconometric Model of Household Labour Supply," Public Economics 0510013, EconWPA.
  3. Alan J. Auerbach, 2005. "Dynamic Scoring: An Introduction to the Issues," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 421-425, May.
  4. Benjamin R. Page, 2005. "CBO's Analysis of the Macroeconomic Effects of the President's Budget," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 437-440, May.
  5. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2003. "Discrete Hours Labour Supply Modelling: Specification, Estimation and Simulation," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/20, New Zealand Treasury.
  6. Michiel Evers & Ruud de Mooij & Daniel van Vuuren, 2005. "What explains the variation in estimates of labour supply elasticities?," CPB Discussion Paper 51, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  7. Thor O. Thoresen & Annette Alstadsæter, 2010. "Shifts in Organizational Form under a Dual Income Tax System," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 66(4), pages 384-418, December.
  8. Steinar Str�m & John K. Dagsvik, 2006. "Sectoral labour supply, choice restrictions and functional form," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(6), pages 803-826.
  9. John K. Dagsvik & Zhiyang Jia, 2006. "Labor Supply as a Choice among Latent Job Opportunities. A Practical Empirical Approach," Discussion Papers 481, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  10. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weinzierl, Matthew, 2006. "Dynamic scoring: A back-of-the-envelope guide," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(8-9), pages 1415-1433, September.
  11. Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman, 2005. "Wage growth and income tax revenue elasticities with endogenous labour supply," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 21-38, January.
  12. Dagsvik, John K, 1994. "Discrete and Continuous Choice, Max-Stable Processes, and Independence from Irrelevant Attributes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(5), pages 1179-1205, September.
  13. Diamond, John W. & Moomau, Pamela H., 2003. "Issues in Analyzing the Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Policy," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 56(3), pages 447-62, September.
  14. Hutton, J P & Lambert, P J, 1980. "Evaluating Income Tax Revenue Elasticities," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(363), pages 901-06, December.
  15. Richard Blundell & Thomas MaCurdy, 1998. "Labour supply: a review of alternative approaches," IFS Working Papers W98/18, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  16. Rosanne Altshuler & Nicholas Bull & John Diamond & Timothy Dowd & Pamela Moomau, 2006. "The Role of Dynamic Scoring in the Federal Budget Process: Closing the Gap Between Theory and Practice," Departmental Working Papers 200622, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  17. Gravelle, Jane G., 1995. "Behavioral Feedback Effects and the Revenue-Estimating Process," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 48(3), pages 463-77, September.
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