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More realistic estimates of revenue changes from tax cuts

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Procedures of revenue estimation of changes in the personal income tax are discussed. Using revenue estimates of the 2006 tax cuts in the personal income tax in Norway as an example, we show that estimates of costs of cuts differ substantially when different effects are brought into consideration. Estimates of revenue effects which take labor supply responses and effects through indirect taxation and corporate taxes into account are presented and contrasted with estimates obtained by current procedures. Our estimates indicate that a substantial part of the initial outlay is returned; approximately 56 percent comes back as increased tax revenues from other tax bases and increased personal income tax following from labor supply adjustments.

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File URL: http://www.ssb.no/a/publikasjoner/pdf/DP/dp545.pdf
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Paper provided by Statistics Norway, Research Department in its series Discussion Papers with number 545.

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Date of creation: May 2008
Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:545
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  1. Michiel Evers & Ruud de Mooij & Daniel van Vuuren, 2005. "What explains the variation in estimates of labour supply elasticities?," CPB Discussion Paper 51, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  2. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb & Rosanna Scutella, 2003. "Discrete Hours Labour Supply Modelling: Specification, Estimation and Simulation," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n21, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  3. Dagsvik, John K. & Strøm, Steinar, 2004. "Sectoral labor supply, choice restrictions and functional form," Memorandum 13/2004, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  4. Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman, 2005. "Wage growth and income tax revenue elasticities with endogenous labour supply," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 21-38, January.
  5. Thor O. Thoresen & Annette Alstadsæter, 2010. "Shifts in Organizational Form under a Dual Income Tax System," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 66(4), pages 384-418, December.
  6. John Creedy & Alan Duncan, 2001. "Aggregating Labour Supply and Feedback Effects in Microsimulation," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2001n15, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  7. Aaberge, Rolf & Colombino, Ugo, 2006. "Designing Optimal Taxes with a Microeconometric Model of Household Labour Supply," IZA Discussion Papers 2468, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Blundell, Richard & Macurdy, Thomas, 1999. "Labor supply: A review of alternative approaches," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 27, pages 1559-1695 Elsevier.
  9. Hutton, J P & Lambert, P J, 1980. "Evaluating Income Tax Revenue Elasticities," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(363), pages 901-906, December.
  10. Dagsvik, John K, 1994. "Discrete and Continuous Choice, Max-Stable Processes, and Independence from Irrelevant Attributes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(5), pages 1179-1205, September.
  11. Rosanne Altshuler & Nicholas Bull & John Diamond & Tim Dowd & Pamela Moomau, 2005. "The Role of Dynamic Scoring in the Federal Budget Process: Closing the Gap between Theory and Practice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 432-436, May.
  12. Gravelle, Jane G., 1995. "Behavioral Feedback Effects and the Revenue-Estimating Process," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 48(3), pages 463-477, September.
  13. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weinzierl, Matthew, 2006. "Dynamic scoring: A back-of-the-envelope guide," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(8-9), pages 1415-1433, September.
  14. Thor O. Thoresen & Karl Ove Aarbu, 1999. "Income Responses to Tax Changes - Evidence from the Norwegian Tax Reform," Discussion Papers 260, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  15. John K. Dagsvik & Zhiyang Jia, 2006. "Labor Supply as a Choice among Latent Job Opportunities. A Practical Empirical Approach," Discussion Papers 481, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  16. Diamond, John W. & Moomau, Pamela H., 2003. "Issues in Analyzing the Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Policy," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 56(3), pages 447-462, September.
  17. repec:ntj:journl:v:48:y:1995:i:no._3:p:463-77 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Benjamin R. Page, 2005. "CBO's Analysis of the Macroeconomic Effects of the President's Budget," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 437-440, May.
  19. Alan J. Auerbach, 2005. "Dynamic Scoring: An Introduction to the Issues," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 421-425, May.
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