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Dynamic scoring of tax reforms in the European Union

Author

Listed:
  • Salvador Barrios
  • Mathias Dolls
  • Anamaria Maftei
  • Andreas Peichl
  • Sara Riscado
  • Janos Varga
  • Christian Wittneben

Abstract

In this paper, we present the first dynamic scoring exercise linking a microsimulation and a dynamic general equilibrium model for Europe. We illustrate our novel methodology analysing hypothetical reforms of the social insurance contributions system in Belgium. Our approach takes into account the feedback effects resulting from adjustments and behavioral responses in the labor market and the economy-wide reaction to the tax policy changes, essential for a comprehensive evaluation of the reforms. We find that the self-financing effect of a reduction in employers’ social insurance contribution is substantially larger than that of a comparable reduction in employees’ social insurance contributions.

Suggested Citation

  • Salvador Barrios & Mathias Dolls & Anamaria Maftei & Andreas Peichl & Sara Riscado & Janos Varga & Christian Wittneben, 2018. "Dynamic scoring of tax reforms in the European Union," ifo Working Paper Series 251, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_251
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    3. Ana Agúndez García & Michael Christl, 2023. "Hypothetical Tax-Benefit Reforms in Hungary: Shifting from Tax Relief to Cash Transfers for Family Support," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 61(6), pages 723-746, November.
    4. Michal Horvath & Matus Senaj & Zuzana Siebertova & Norbert Svarda & Jana Valachyova, 2018. "Evaluating the Aggregate Effects of Tax and Benefit Reforms," Working Papers Working Paper No. 1/2018, Council for Budget Responsibility.
    5. Alexandri, Eva & Figari, Francesco & Longo, Enrico & Suta, Cornelia-Madalina, 2024. "A micro-macro approach for the evaluation of fiscal policies: The case of the Italian tax-benefit reform," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    6. Salvador Barrios & Viginta Ivaškaitė-Tamošiūnė & Anamaria Maftei & Edlira Narazani & Janos Varga, 2020. "Progressive Tax Reforms in Flat Tax Countries," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(2), pages 83-107, March.
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    13. Okan Erol, Kazim, 2022. "TURKMOD: developing a tax and benefit microsimulation model for Turkey," Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis Working Paper Series CEMPA1/22, Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    14. Alari Paulus & Caroline Klein, 2019. "Effects of tax-benefit policies on the income distribution and work incentives in Estonia," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1570, OECD Publishing.
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    17. Holly Sutherland, 2018. "Quality Assessment of Microsimulation Models The Case of EUROMOD," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(1), pages 198-223.
    18. Andreas Peichl, 2016. "Linking Microsimulation and CGE models," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 9(1), pages 167-174.
    19. Mathias Dolls & Clemens Fuest & Carla Krolage & Florian Neumeier & Daniel Stöhlker, 2019. "Incentivising structural reforms in Europe?," EconPol Policy Brief 14, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    20. D'ANDRIA Diego & DEBACKER Jason & EVANS Richard W. & PYCROFT Jonathan & ZACHLOD-JELEC Magdalena, 2021. "Taxing income or consumption: macroeconomic and distributional effects for Italy," JRC Working Papers on Taxation & Structural Reforms 2021-13, Joint Research Centre.
    21. Benczúr, Péter & Kátay, Gábor & Kiss, Áron, 2018. "Assessing the economic and social impact of tax and benefit reforms: A general-equilibrium microsimulation approach applied to Hungary," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 441-457.
    22. Salvador Barrios, 2020. "Taxation and growth: Why does it matter and how can it be analysed?," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 42(4), pages 366-384, December.
    23. Vandyck, Toon & Weitzel, Matthias & Wojtowicz, Krzysztof & Rey Los Santos, Luis & Maftei, Anamaria & Riscado, Sara, 2021. "Climate policy design, competitiveness and income distribution: A macro-micro assessment for 11 EU countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
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