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Analysing welfare reform in a microsimulation-AGE model: the value of disaggregation

  • Arntz, Melanie
  • Boeters, Stefan
  • Gürtzgen, Nicole
  • Schubert, Stefanie

We present a combined, consistent microsimulation-AGE model that uses the labour market model PACE-L, data from the German Socio-Economic Panel and a discrete choice labour supply estimation. The model is used to analyse a reform that cuts the social assistance minimum income and lowers the transfer withdrawal rate in order to encourage labour force participation at the lower end of the wage distribution. We compare a disaggregated and an aggregated version of the model as well as a partial and a general equilibrium variant. It turns out that both disaggregation and general equilibrium feedback tend to mitigate the labour supply response to the reform proposal. While some labour supply indicators react quite sensitively to the level of aggregation, most macroeconomic variables are considerably more robust.

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Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 06-76.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:5469
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  1. Stefan Boeters & Michael Feil & Nicole Gürtzgen, 2005. "Discrete Working Time Choice in an Applied General Equilibrium Model," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 1-29, November.
  2. John Cockburn, 2002. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in Nepal: A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis," CSAE Working Paper Series 2002-11, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
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  8. Graafland, Johan J. & de Mooij, Ruud A., 1999. "Fiscal policy and the labour market: An AGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 189-219, April.
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  14. Stefan Boeters & Reinhold Schnabel & Nicole Gürtzgen, 2006. "Reforming Social Welfare in Germany: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7, pages 363-388, November.
  15. Arthur van Soest, 1995. "Structural Models of Family Labor Supply: A Discrete Choice Approach," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(1), pages 63-88.
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  17. Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino & Erling Holmøy & Birger Strøm & Tom Wennemo, 2004. "Population ageing and fiscal sustainability: An integrated micro-macro analysis of required tax changes," Discussion Papers 367, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  18. Shoven, John B & Whalley, John, 1984. "Applied General-Equilibrium Models of Taxation and International Trade: An Introduction and Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 1007-51, September.
  19. John Hutton & Anna Ruocco, 1999. "Tax Reform and Employment in Europe," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 263-287, August.
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