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Die Evaluation von Steuerreformen durch Simulationsmodelle

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  • Peichl, Andreas

Abstract

In diesem Beitrag wird die Simulationsanalyse als eine Methode zur empirischen Evaluation von Steuerreformen präsentiert und ein Überblick über die empirische Literatur gegeben. Simulationsanalysen im Bereich der Steuer- und Sozialpolitik können als ökonomisches Experiment verstanden werden, um die komplexen Auswirkungen und insbesondere die Beschäftigungseffekte einer Reform des Steuer- und Transfersystems ex ante zu quantifizieren und anhand dieser Berechnungen eine Entscheidungshilfe für die Auswahl der besten Alternative zu bieten. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit werden fünf verschiedene Modellklassen vorgestellt, miteinander verglichen und jeweils mögliche Anwendungsgebiete beispielhaft präsentiert. Bei den makroökonometrischen Modellen haben sich die allgemeinen Gleichgewichtsmodelle gegenüber den makroökonomischen Modellen, bei den mikroökonometrischen Modellen die Mikrosimulationsmodelle gegen die Gruppensimulationsmodelle durchgesetzt. CGE-Modelle betrachten die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte und basieren auf hoch aggregierten Daten, während die partialanalytischen Mikrosimulationsmodelle auf Mikrodaten zurückgreifen und deshalb die Modellierung viel komplexerer Regelungen und Reformen ermöglichen. In letzter Zeit ist mit den kombinierten Mikro-Makro-Simulationsmodellen eine neue Klasse entstanden, die die Vorteile beider Varianten zu nutzen versucht.

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  • Peichl, Andreas, 2005. "Die Evaluation von Steuerreformen durch Simulationsmodelle," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 05-1, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:uoccpe:5140
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    Cited by:

    1. Clemens Fuest & Joachim Mitschke & Andreas Peichl & Thilo Schaefer, 2007. "Der Kölner Kombilohn für den Niedriglohnsektor," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(11), pages 25-29, June.
    2. Peichl, Andreas & Fuest, Clemens & Schaefer, Thilo, 2006. "Does tax simplification yield more equity and efficiency? An empirical analysis for Germany," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 06-5, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    3. Clemens Fuest & Andreas Peichl & Thilo Schaefer, 2008. "Is a flat tax reform feasible in a grown-up democracy of Western Europe? A simulation study for Germany," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 15(5), pages 620-636, October.
    4. Peichl, Andreas & Fuest, Clemens & Schaefer, Thilo, 2005. "Dokumentation FiFoSiM: Integriertes Steuer-Transfer-Mikrosimulations- und CGE-Modell," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 05-3, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    5. Reister, Timo & Spengel, Christoph & Finke, Katharina & Heckemeyer, Jost Henrich, 2008. "ZEW Corporate Taxation Microsimulation Model (ZEW TaxCoMM)," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-117, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    6. Clauss, Markus & Schubert, Stefanie, 2009. "The ZEW combined microsimulation-CGE model: innovative tool for applied policy analysis," ZEW Discussion Papers 09-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Schaefer, Thilo & Peichl, Andreas & Fuest, Clemens, 2007. "Is a Flat Tax politically feasible in a grown-up Welfare State?," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 07-6, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    8. Andreas PEICHL, "undated". "The Benefits of Linking CGE and Microsimulation Models - Evidence from a Flat Tax analysis," EcoMod2008 23800106, EcoMod.
    9. Clemens Fuest & Andreas Peichl & Thilo Schaefer, 2007. "Führt Steuervereinfachung zu einer „gerechteren” Einkommensverteilung? Eine empirische Analyse für Deutschland," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(1), pages 20-37, January.
    10. Schaefer, Thilo & Peichl, Andreas, 2006. "Documentation FiFoSiM: integrated tax benefit microsimulation and CGE model," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 06-10, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    11. Anke Mönnig, 2012. "Balancing the European Currency Union - an Impact Analysis on the Return of National Currencies," EcoMod2012 3831, EcoMod.
    12. Bergs Christian & Schaefer Thilo & Fuest Clemens & Peichl Andreas, 2007. "Reformoptionen der Familienbesteuerung: Aufkommens-, Verteilungs- und Arbeitsangebotseffekte," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 58(1), pages 1-27, April.
    13. Tilmann Rave & Ursula Triebswetter, 2006. "Ökonomische Auswirkungen umweltpolitischer Regulierungen : eine Machbarkeitsstudie vor dem Hintergrund der Anforderungen der Richtlinie 96/61/EG über die integrierte Vermeidung und Verminderung von Um," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 30, October.
    14. Fuest Clemens & Peichl Andreas, 2008. "Grundeinkommen vs. Kombilohn: Beschäftigungs- und Finanzierungswirkungen und Unterschiede im Empfängerkreis," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 59(2), pages 94-113, August.
    15. Anke Mönnig, 2011. "Product Tax Modelling - using the dynamic interindustry model INFORGE," EcoMod2011 2912, EcoMod.
    16. Clemens Fuest & Andreas Peichl & Thilo Schaefer, 2007. "Beschäftigungs- und Finanzierungswirkungen des Bürgergeldkonzepts von Dieter Althaus," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(10), pages 36-40, May.
    17. Fuest, Clemens & Peichl, Andreas & Schaefer, Thilo, 2007. "Is a Flat Tax Feasible in a Grown-up Welfare State?," IZA Discussion Papers 3142, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Andreas Peichl & Thilo Schaefer, 2009. "FiFoSiM - an integrated tax benefit microsimulation and CGE model for Germany," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 2(1), pages 1-15.
    19. Peichl, Andreas & Schaefer, Thilo & Scheicher, Christoph, 2006. "Measuring Richness and Poverty," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 06-11, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    20. Fritzsche, Bernd & Haisken-DeNew, John & Kambeck, Rainer & Siemers, Lars-H. R. & Bergs, Christian & Fuest, Clemens & Peichl, Andreas & Schaefer, Thilo & Thöne, Michael, 2007. "Der Zusammenhang zwischen Steuerlast- und Einkommensverteilung: Forschungsprojekt für das Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Soziales. Endbericht - Dezember 2007," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 70874.

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    Keywords

    Simulation; AGE; CGE; Mikrosimulation; Steuerreform;

    JEL classification:

    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies

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