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Die Evaluation von Steuerreformen durch Simulationsmodelle

  • Peichl, Andreas

In diesem Beitrag wird die Simulationsanalyse als eine Methode zur empirischen Evaluation von Steuerreformen präsentiert und ein Überblick über die empirische Literatur gegeben. Simulationsanalysen im Bereich der Steuer- und Sozialpolitik können als ökonomisches Experiment verstanden werden, um die komplexen Auswirkungen und insbesondere die Beschäftigungseffekte einer Reform des Steuer- und Transfersystems ex ante zu quantifizieren und anhand dieser Berechnungen eine Entscheidungshilfe für die Auswahl der besten Alternative zu bieten. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit werden fünf verschiedene Modellklassen vorgestellt, miteinander verglichen und jeweils mögliche Anwendungsgebiete beispielhaft präsentiert. Bei den makroökonometrischen Modellen haben sich die allgemeinen Gleichgewichtsmodelle gegenüber den makroökonomischen Modellen, bei den mikroökonometrischen Modellen die Mikrosimulationsmodelle gegen die Gruppensimulationsmodelle durchgesetzt. CGE-Modelle betrachten die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte und basieren auf hoch aggregierten Daten, während die partialanalytischen Mikrosimulationsmodelle auf Mikrodaten zurückgreifen und deshalb die Modellierung viel komplexerer Regelungen und Reformen ermöglichen. In letzter Zeit ist mit den kombinierten Mikro-Makro-Simulationsmodellen eine neue Klasse entstanden, die die Vorteile beider Varianten zu nutzen versucht.

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Paper provided by University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics in its series FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge with number 05-1.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:uoccpe:5140
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