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A simulation model for the demographic transition in the OECD: Data requirements, model structure and calibration

  • Fehr, Hans
  • Halder, Gitte
  • Jokisch, Sabine
  • Kotlikoff, Laurence J.

The developed world stands at the fore of a phenomenal demographic transition. Over the next 30 years the number of elderly in the OECD countries will more than double. At the same time, the number of workers available to pay the elderly their government-guaranteed pension and health care benefits will rise by less than 10 percent. These two demographic trends are expected to put enormous pressure on social security systems and government expenses. To address the consequences of the aging process, this paper develops a dynamic, intergenerational, and interregional demographic life-cycle model. The model has three regions - the U.S., the EU and Japan - which exchange goods and capital. The model features immigration, age-specific fertility, life span extension, life span uncertainty, bequests arising from incomplete annuitization, and intra-cohort heterogeneity. After introducing the theoretical model, we simulate the transition path for the three considered regions keeping current immigration constant, assuming the projected increase in life expectancy and the continuation of current social security and health care policies.

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Paper provided by University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics in its series W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers with number 45.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:wuewep:45
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  1. Beetsma, Roel & Bettendorf, Leon & Broer, Peter, 2003. "The budgeting and economic consequences of ageing in the Netherlands," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 987-1013, September.
  2. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-383717 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Fehr, Hans, 2000. " Pension Reform during the Demographic Transition," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(3), pages 419-43, June.
  4. Isabelle Joumard, 2002. "Tax systems in European Union countries," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2002(1), pages 91-151.
  5. David Altig, 2001. "Simulating Fundamental Tax Reform in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 574-595, June.
  6. Whitehouse, Edward, 2001. "Pension systems in 15 countries compared: the value of entitlements," MPRA Paper 14751, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Fehr, Hans, 1999. "Welfare Effects of Dynamic Tax Reforms," Beiträge zur Finanzwissenschaft, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, edition 1, volume 5, number urn:isbn:9783161470165.
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