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Simulating Russia’s and Other Large Economies’ Challenging and Interconnected Transitions

Listed author(s):
  • Seth G. Benzell
  • Eugene Goryunov
  • Maria Kazakova
  • Laurence J. Kotlikoff
  • Guillermo LaGarda
  • Kristina Nesterova
  • Andrey Zubarev

This paper develops a large-scale, dynamic life-cycle model to simulate Russia’s demographic and fiscal transition under favorable and unfavorable fossil-fuel price regimes. The model includes Russia, the U.S., China, India, the EU, and Japan+ (Japan plus Korea). The model predicts dramatic increases in tax rates in the U.S., EU, India, and Russia. Indeed, the increases are so large as to question their political feasibility let alone their actual collection given the potential for tax avoidance and tax evasion.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 21269.

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Date of creation: Jun 2015
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21269
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  11. Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 541-563, July.
  12. Altonji, Joseph G & Hayashi, Fumio & Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1992. "Is the Extended Family Altruistically Linked? Direct Tests Using Micro Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1177-1198, December.
  13. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2008. "Dynamic Globalization and Its Potentially Alarming Prospects for Low-Wage Workers," NBER Working Papers 14527, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  15. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2010. "Global growth, ageing, and inequality across and within generations," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 636-654, Winter.
  16. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2004. "The Role of Immigration in Dealing with the Developed World's Demographic Transition," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 60(3), pages 296-296, September.
  17. Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-926, Sept./Oct.
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  21. Michel Aglietta & Vladimir Borgy & Jean Chateau & Michel Juillard & Jacques le Cacheux, 2007. "Asian Catch Up, World Growth and International Capital Flows in the XXIst Century: a Prospective Analysis with the INGENUE 2 Model," Working Papers 2007-01, CEPII research center.
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  25. Shinichi Nishiyama & Kent Smetters, 2005. "Consumption Taxes and Economic Efficiency with Idiosyncratic Wage Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(5), pages 1088-1115, October.
  26. Hayashi, Fumio & Altonji, Joseph & Kotlikoff, Laurence, 1996. "Risk-Sharing between and within Families," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 261-294, March.
  27. Fehr, Hans & Jokisch, Sabine & Kallweit, Manuel & Kindermann, Fabian & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2013. "Generational Policy and Aging in Closed and Open Dynamic General Equilibrium Models," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
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  30. Kato, Ryuta Ray, 2002. "Government Deficit, Public Investment, and Public Capital in the Transition to an Aging Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 462-491, December.
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