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Fertility, mortality and the developed world's demographic transition

  • Fehr, Hans
  • Jokisch, Sabine
  • Kotlikoff, Laurence J.

This study uses Fehr et al. [Fehr, H., Jokisch, S., & Kotlikoff, L. J. (2004a). The role of immigration in dealing with the developed world's demographic transition. FinanzArchiv, 60, 296-324; Fehr, H., Jokisch, S., & Kotlikoff, L. J. (2005). The developed world's demographic transition--the roles of capital flows, immigration, and policy. In R. Brooks & A. Razin (Eds.), Social security reform (pp. 11-43). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press] dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze the effects of changes in fertility and mortality on the developed world's demographic transition. The model features three regions - the U.S., Japan, and the EU-15 - and incorporates age- and time-specific fertility and mortality rates, detailed fiscal institutions, and international capital mobility, subject to adjustment costs. The model's life-cycle agents maximize expected utility taking into account the uncertainty of their dates of death. Since there is no altruism, bequests arise solely as a result of incomplete annuitization. The model fits the developed world's demographic, fiscal, and economic initial conditions quite closely. Our simulations show that, all else equal, higher fertility and lower mortality will, respectively, improve and worsen fiscal and economic conditions along the world's dynamic transition path. But we find that such demographic changes, even when very large in size and relatively quick in nature, would come too late to materially alter the fiscal and economic picture over most of this Century. Indeed, our simulations indicate only minor effects on the developed world's rather bleak baseline transition path prior to roughly 2070 arising from either major increases in fertility rates or major reductions in mortality rates. Although such changes have important long-run fiscal and economic effects, they occur too gradually to materially alter the short- and medium-term outcomes.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

Volume (Year): 30 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 455-473

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:30:y:2008:i:3:p:455-473
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735

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  1. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2004. "The Role of Immigration in Dealing with the Developed World's Demographic Transition," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 60(3), pages 296-, September.
  2. Fehr, Hans & Halder, Gitte & Jokisch, Sabine & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2003. "A simulation model for the demographic transition in the OECD: Data requirements, model structure and calibration," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 45, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  3. Berkel, Barbara & Börsch-Supan, Axel H. & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2004. "Sind die Probleme der Bevölkerungsalterung durch eine höhere Geburtenrate lösbar?," Munich Reprints in Economics 20285, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  4. Thai-Thanh Dang & Pablo Antolín & Howard Oxley, 2001. "Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 305, OECD Publishing.
  5. David Altig, 2001. "Simulating Fundamental Tax Reform in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 574-595, June.
  6. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & James Sefton & Martin Weale, 1998. "Simulating the transmission of wealth inequality via bequests," Working Paper 9811, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  7. Kraay, Aart & Loayza, Norman & Servén, Luis & Ventura, Jaume, 2001. "Country Portfolios," CEPR Discussion Papers 2974, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Sveinbjörn Blöndal & Stefano Scarpetta, 1999. "The Retirement Decision in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 202, OECD Publishing.
  9. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2002. "Longevity and Life Cycle Savings," NBER Working Papers 8808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge," Working papers 553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  11. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Larry Kotlikoff, 2003. "The Developed World's Demographic Transition - the Roles of Capital Flows, Immigration, and Policy," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-133, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  12. Heijdra, Ben J. & Ligthart, Jenny E., 2004. "The macroeconomic dynamics of demographic shocks," CCSO Working Papers 200403, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
  13. repec:dgr:rugccs:200403 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Ronald Lee & Jonathan Skinner, 1999. "Will Aging Baby Boomers Bust the Federal Budget?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 117-140, Winter.
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