IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_5644.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Facing Demographic Challenges: Pension Cuts or Tax Hikes

Author

Listed:
  • George Kudrna
  • Chung Tran
  • Alan D. Woodland

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate two fiscal policy options to mitigate fiscal pressure arising from ageing of the Australian population: pension cuts or tax hikes. Using a computable overlapping generations model, we find that while both policy options achieve the same fiscal goal, the macroeconomic and welfare outcomes differ significantly. Future generations prefer pension cuts, whereas current generations prefer tax hikes to finance government spending commitments. Interestingly, taxing consumption or income results in opposing macroeconomic and welfare effects. Increases in the consumption tax rate have positive effects on labour supply, domestic assets and output (similar to pension cuts), but reduce the welfare of low income households most. Conversely, increases in progressive income or payroll taxes have negative effects on the economy but reduce the welfare of low income households least. Our results highlight the intra- and inter-generational conflicts of interest and political constraints when implementing any structural fiscal reforms.

Suggested Citation

  • George Kudrna & Chung Tran & Alan D. Woodland, 2015. "Facing Demographic Challenges: Pension Cuts or Tax Hikes," CESifo Working Paper Series 5644, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5644
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp5644.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kulish Mariano & Kent Christopher & Smith Kathryn, 2010. "Aging, Retirement, and Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, July.
    2. Fehr, Hans & Habermann, Christian, 2006. "Pension reform and demographic uncertainty: the case of Germany," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 69-90, March.
    3. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    4. James M. Poterba, 2004. "The impact of population aging on financial markets," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 163-216.
    5. Selahattin İmrohoroğlu & Sagiri Kitao & Tomoaki Yamada, 2016. "Achieving Fiscal Balance In Japan," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(1), pages 117-154, February.
    6. Shinichi Nishiyama, 2013. "Fiscal Policy Effects in a Heterogeneous-Agent Overlapping-Generations Economy With an Aging Population: Working Paper 2013-07," Working Papers 44941, Congressional Budget Office.
    7. Gary Hansen & Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 2016. "Fiscal Reform and Government Debt in Japan: A Neoclassical Perspective," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 201-224, July.
    8. Gokhale, Jagadeesh & Kotlikoff, Laurence J. & Sefton, James & Weale, Martin, 2001. "Simulating the transmission of wealth inequality via bequests," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 93-128, January.
    9. Sagiri Kitao, 2014. "Sustainable Social Security: Four Options," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(4), pages 756-779, October.
    10. Fehr, Hans & Jokisch, Sabine & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2008. "Fertility, mortality and the developed world's demographic transition," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 455-473.
    11. Guest, Ross S & McDonald, Ian M, 2001. "Ageing, Optimal National Saving and Future Living Standards in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(237), pages 117-134, June.
    12. Javier Diaz-Gimenez & Julian Diaz-Saavedra, 2009. "Delaying Retirement in Spain," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(1), pages 147-167, January.
    13. Kitao, Sagiri, 2015. "Fiscal cost of demographic transition in Japan," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 37-58.
    14. Kudrna, George & Woodland, Alan, 2011. "An inter-temporal general equilibrium analysis of the Australian age pension means test," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 61-79, March.
    15. Oliner, Stephen & Rudebusch, Glenn & Sichel, Daniel, 1995. "New and Old Models of Business Investment: A Comparison of Forecasting Performance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 806-826, August.
    16. Robin Brooks, 2002. "Asset-Market Effects of the Baby Boom and Social-Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 402-406, May.
    17. Hans Fehr, 2000. "Pension Reform during the Demographic Transition," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(3), pages 419-443, September.
    18. Imrohoroglu, Selahattin & Kitao, Sagiri, 2009. "Labor supply elasticity and social security reform," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(7-8), pages 867-878, August.
    19. Kotlikoff, Laurence J. & Smetters, Kent & Walliser, Jan, 2007. "Mitigating America's demographic dilemma by pre-funding social security," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 247-266, March.
    20. Andrew B. Abel, 2003. "The Effects of a Baby Boom on Stock Prices and Capital Accumulation in the Presence of Social Security," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 551-578, March.
    21. Mark Wooden & Simon Freidin & Nicole Watson, 2002. "The Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA)Survey: Wave 1," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 35(3), pages 339-348, September.
    22. Shinichi Nishiyama, 2004. "Analyzing an Aging Population--A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach: Technical Paper 2004-03," Working Papers 15191, Congressional Budget Office.
    23. R. Anton Braun & Douglas H. Joines, 2014. "The Implications of a graying japan for government policy," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    24. Guest, Ross S., 2006. "Population ageing, capital mobility and optimal saving," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 89-102, January.
    25. Ross S. Guest & Ian M. McDonald, 2001. "Ageing, Optimal National Saving and Future Living Standards in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(237), pages 117-134, June.
    26. Fehr, Hans, 2000. "Pension Reform during the Demographic Transition," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(3), pages 419-443, June.
    27. Kudrna, George & Tran, Chung & Woodland, Alan, 2015. "The dynamic fiscal effects of demographic shift: The case of Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 105-122.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tran, Chung & Wende, Sebastian, 2021. "On the marginal excess burden of taxation in an overlapping generations model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    2. Kudrna, George & Tran, Chung, 2018. "Comparing budget repair measures for a small open economy with growing debt," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 162-183.
    3. Christine Ma & Chung Tran, 2016. "Fiscal Space under Demographic Shift," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2016-642, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    4. George Kudrna & John Piggott & Phitawat Poonpolkul, 2022. "Extending Pension Policy in Emerging Asia: An Overlapping-Generations Model Analysis for Indonesia," PIER Discussion Papers 171, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Mathias Dolls & Karina Doorley & Alari Paulus & Hilmar Schneider & Sebastian Siegloch & Eric Sommer, 2017. "Fiscal sustainability and demographic change: a micro-approach for 27 EU countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(4), pages 575-615, August.
    6. Kudrna, George & Tran, Chung & Woodland, Alan, 2022. "Sustainable and equitable pensions with means testing in aging economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    7. Mădălina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Dragoș-Alexandru HAȘEGAN, 2021. "Statistical analysis on population ageing," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(627), S), pages 83-96, Summer.
    8. Jung, Juergen & Tran, Chung & Chambers, Matthew, 2017. "Aging and health financing in the U.S.: A general equilibrium analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 428-462.
    9. Phitawat Poonpolkul & Ponpoje Porapakkarm & Nada Wasi, 2024. "Aging, inadequacy, and fiscal constraint: The case of Thailand," International Studies of Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(1), pages 35-67, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kudrna, George & Tran, Chung & Woodland, Alan, 2015. "The dynamic fiscal effects of demographic shift: The case of Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 105-122.
    2. Tran, Chung, 2018. "Temptation and taxation with elastic labor," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 351-369.
    3. repec:acb:cbeeco:2014-616 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Woodland, A., 2016. "Taxation, Pensions, and Demographic Change," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 713-780, Elsevier.
    5. Kudrna, George & Tran, Chung & Woodland, Alan, 2022. "Sustainable and equitable pensions with means testing in aging economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    6. Kudrna, George & Tran, Chung, 2018. "Comparing budget repair measures for a small open economy with growing debt," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 162-183.
    7. George Kudrna & Chung Tran, 2015. "Budget Repair Measures: Tough Choices for Australia's Future," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2015-628, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    8. Kudrna, George, 2016. "Economy-wide effects of means-tested pensions: The case of Australia," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 7(C), pages 17-29.
    9. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    10. George Kudrna, 2015. "Means Testing of Public Pensions: The Case of Australia," Working Papers wp338, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    11. Kitao, Sagiri, 2015. "Fiscal cost of demographic transition in Japan," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 37-58.
    12. Attanasio, O. & Bonfatti, A. & Kitao, S. & Weber, G., 2016. "Global Demographic Trends," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 179-235, Elsevier.
    13. Sagiri Kitao, 2017. "When do we Start? Pension reform in ageing Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 68(1), pages 26-47, March.
    14. George Kudrna & John Piggott & Phitawat Poonpolkul, 2022. "Extending pension policy in emerging Asia: An overlapping-generations model analysis for Indonesia," CAMA Working Papers 2022-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    15. Hans FEHR, 2010. "Pension Reform with Variable Retirment Age," EcoMod2010 259600055, EcoMod.
    16. Georges, Patrick & Seçkin, Aylin, 2016. "From pro-natalist rhetoric to population policies in Turkey? An OLG general equilibrium analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 79-93.
    17. Fehr, Hans & Jokisch, Sabine & Kallweit, Manuel & Kindermann, Fabian & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2013. "Generational Policy and Aging in Closed and Open Dynamic General Equilibrium Models," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1719-1800, Elsevier.
    18. Fehr, Hans, 2016. "CGE modeling social security reforms," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 475-494.
    19. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2004. "Global Aging: Issues, Answers, More Questions," MEA discussion paper series 04055, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    20. Karolina Goraus & Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2014. "Does social security reform reduce gains from increasing the retirement age?," Working Papers 2014-03, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    21. Devriendt, Willem & Heylen, Freddy & Jacobs, Arthur, 2023. "Coping with demographic change: macroeconomic performance and welfare inequality effects of public pension reform," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 425-449, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    demographic transition; fiscal policy; welfare; overlapping generations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5644. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.