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Achieving Fiscal Balance in Japan

  • Tomoaki Yamada

    (Meiji University)

  • Sagiri Kitao

    (Hunter College)

  • Selahattin Imrohoroglu

    (University of Southern California)

In this paper we build a micro-data based, large-scale overlapping generations model for Japan in which individuals differ in age, gender, employment status, income, and asset holdings, and incorporate the Japanese pension rules in detail. We estimate age-consumption and age-earnings profiles from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey data, assume complete markets and use these to generate tax revenues and transfer payments for government accounts. We calibrate the model so that it produces the main macroeconomic indicators for 2010. Using existing pension law and fiscal parameters and the medium variants of fertility and survival probability projections, we produce predicted time paths for the ratio JGBs and the pension fund.

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Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2013 Meeting Papers with number 736.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed013:736
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  1. Masaya Sakuragawa & Kaoru Hosono, 2010. "Fiscal Sustainability Of Japan: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 61(4), pages 517-537, December.
  2. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Data Appendix to The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade," Technical Appendices hayashi02, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  3. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2000. "The 1990s in Japan: a lost decade," Working Papers 607, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. Jeremy Lise & Nao Sudo & Michio Suzuki & Ken Yamada & Tomoaki Yamada, 2013. "Wage, Income and Consumption Inequality in Japan, 1981-2008: from Boom to Lost Decades," Working Papers 2013-011, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
  5. Attanasio, Orazio & Kitao, Sagiri & Violante, Giovanni L., 2007. "Global demographic trends and social security reform," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 144-198, January.
  6. Takero Doi & Takeo Hoshi & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2011. "Japanese Government Debt and Sustainability of Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 17305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Takeo Hoshi & Takatoshi Ito, 2012. "Defying Gravity: How Long Will Japanese Government Bond Prices Remain High?," NBER Working Papers 18287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. "Imrohoroglu, Selahattin" & "Sudo, Nao", 2011. "Will a Growth Miracle Reduce Debt in Japan?," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 62(1), pages 44-56, January.
  9. Gunji, Hiroshi & Miyazaki, Kenji, 2011. "Estimates of average marginal tax rates on factor incomes in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 81-106, June.
  10. Storesletten, Kjetil, 2001. "Fiscal Implications of Immigration - A Net Present Value Calculation -," Seminar Papers 701, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  11. Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Nao Sudo, 2011. "Productivity and Fiscal Policy in Japan: Short-Term Forecasts from the Standard Growth Model," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 73-106, November.
  12. Genda, Yuji & Kambayashi, Ryo, 2002. "Declining Self-Employment in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 73-91, March.
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