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Macroeconomic Impact of Population Aging in Japan: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generations Model

Author

Listed:
  • Ichiro Muto

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Takemasa Oda

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Nao Sudo

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

Due to a sharp decline in the fertility rate and a rapid increase in longevity, Japan's population aging is the furthest advanced in the world. In this study we explore the macroeconomic impact of population aging using a full-fledged overlapping generations model. Our model replicates well the time paths of Japan's macroeconomic variables from the 1980s to the 2000s and yields future paths for these variables over a long horizon. We find that Japan's population aging as a whole adversely affects GNP growth by dampening factor inputs. It also negatively impacts on GNP per capita, especially in the future, mainly due to the decline in the fraction of the population of working-age. For these findings, fertility rate decline plays a dominant role as it reduces both labor force and saver populations. The effects of increased longevity are expansionary, but relatively minor. Our simulations predict that the adverse effects will expand during the next few decades. In addition to closed economy simulations, we examine the consequences of population aging in a small open economy setting. In this case a decline in the domestic capital return encourages investment in foreign capital, mitigating the adverse effects of population aging on GNP.

Suggested Citation

  • Ichiro Muto & Takemasa Oda & Nao Sudo, 2012. "Macroeconomic Impact of Population Aging in Japan: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generations Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 12-E-9, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:12-e-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Ho, Paul, 2024. "Estimating the effects of demographics on interest rates: A robust Bayesian perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    2. Osathanunkul, Rossarin & Dumrong, Pasinee & Yamaka, Woraphon & Maneejuk, Paravee, 2023. "The nonlinear impacts of aging labor and government health expenditures on productivity in ASEAN+3 economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 450-470.
    3. Sudo, Nao & Takizuka, Yasutaka, 2020. "Population Aging And The Real Interest Rate In The Last And Next 50 Years: A Tale Told By An Overlapping Generations Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(8), pages 2060-2103, December.
    4. Yoon, Jong-Won & Kim, Jinill & Lee, Jungjin, 2018. "Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 40(1), pages 1-30.
    5. Alireza Ghorbani & Pouran Raeissi & Mahnoosh Abdollah Milani, 2016. "Modeling the Cost of Population Aging in Iran," Global Journal of Health Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(11), pages 140-140, November.
    6. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2021. "Asian economic development: A primer," Departmental Working Papers 2021-07, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    7. Willem DEVRIENDT & Freddy HEYLEN, 2020. "Macroeconomic and Distributional Effects of Demographic Change in an Open Economy - The Case of Belgium," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(1), pages 87-124, March.
    8. Takemasa Oda, 2024. "A Quantitative Assessment of the Impact of Deflation in an Aging Economy," IMES Discussion Paper Series 24-E-14, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    9. Christine Ma & Chung Tran, 2016. "Fiscal Space under Demographic Shift," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2016-642, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    10. Wang, Ling, 2018. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions under asset purchase programs: Some comparative evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 208-221.
    11. Sun, Tianyu & Chand, Satish & Sharpe, Keiran, 2018. "Effect of Aging on Housing Prices: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generation Model," MPRA Paper 89347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Yuan-Ho Hsu & Hiroshi Yoshida & Fengming Chen, 2022. "The Impacts of Population Aging on China’s Economy," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 14(1), pages 105-130, January.
    13. Song, Jiaying & Sun, Xiao & Gao, Chuansheng, 2025. "Do public services affect economic growth? Evidence from China under the fiscal decentralization perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    14. Zhiwei Liu & Yonglei Fang & Lei Ma, 2022. "A Study on the Impact of Population Age Structure Change on Economic Growth in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-15, March.
    15. Sun, Tianyu & Chand, Satish & Sharpe, Keiran, 2018. "Effect of Aging on Urban Land Prices in China," MPRA Paper 89237, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Alex Zhavoronkov & Maria Litovchenko, 2013. "Biomedical Progress Rates as New Parameters for Models of Economic Growth in Developed Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-17, November.
    17. Kosuke Aoki & Naoko Hara & Maiko Koga, 2017. "Structural Reforms, Innovation and Economic Growth," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 17-E-2, Bank of Japan.
    18. Reona Hagiwara, 2023. "Aging, Health Risk, and Interest Rates," Working Papers 2303, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    19. Liu, Changfei & Wu, Qiong & Yang, Zuozhi, 2024. "Population aging and corporate risk-taking," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    20. Gindra Kasnauskiene & Marija Andriuskaite, 2017. "Economic Implications Of Ageing Lithuanian Population," Organizations and Markets in Emerging Economies, Faculty of Economics, Vilnius University, vol. 8(1).
    21. Ko, Jun-Hyung & Morita, Hiroshi, 2015. "Fiscal sustainability and regime shifts in Japan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 364-375.

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    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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