Achieving Fiscal Balance in Japan
Japan’s population is aging fast and the ratio of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) to GDP is highest among advanced economies. In addition, further government spending is expected, causing concerns about the potential for JGBs to become a significant global issue. In this paper we build a micro-data based, large-scale overlapping generations model for Japan in which individuals differ in age, gender, employment type, income, and asset holdings, and incorporate the Japanese pension rules in detail. We estimate age-consumption and age-earnings profiles from micro data, assume complete markets and use these to generate tax revenues and transfer payments for government accounts. We calibrate the model so that it replicates the main macroeconomic and fiscal indicators for 2010. Using existing pension law and fiscal parameters and the medium variants of fertility and survival probability projections, we produce future time paths for JGBs and the pension fund.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 695 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10065|
Web page: http://econ.hunter.cuny.edu/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2002.
"The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 206-235, January.
- Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2000. "The 1990s in Japan: a lost decade," Working Papers 607, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Data Appendix to The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade," Technical Appendices hayashi02, Review of Economic Dynamics.
- Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Nao Sudo, 2011.
"Will a Growth Miracle Reduce Debt in Japan?,"
IMES Discussion Paper Series
11-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
- Attanasio Orazio P. & Gianluca Violante, 1999.
"Global Demographic Trends and Social Security Reform,"
REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD,
UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE, September.
- Attanasio, Orazio & Kitao, Sagiri & Violante, Giovanni L., 2007. "Global demographic trends and social security reform," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 144-198, January.
- Gunji, Hiroshi & Miyazaki, Kenji, 2011. "Estimates of average marginal tax rates on factor incomes in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 81-106, June.
- Masaya Sakuragawa & Kaoru Hosono, 2010. "Fiscal Sustainability Of Japan: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 61(4), pages 517-537, December.
- Genda, Yuji & Kambayashi, Ryo, 2002. "Declining Self-Employment in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 73-91, March.
- Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Nao Sudo, 2011.
"Productivity and Fiscal Policy in Japan: Short-Term Forecasts from the Standard Growth Model,"
Monetary and Economic Studies,
Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 73-106, November.
- Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Nao Sudo, 2010. "Productivity and Fiscal Policy in Japan: Short Term Forecasts from the Standard Growth Model," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-23, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
- Jeremy Lise & Nao Sudo & Michio Suzuki & Ken Yamada & Tomoaki Yamada, 2013.
"Wage, Income and Consumption Inequality in Japan, 1981-2008: from Boom to Lost Decades,"
2013-011, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
- Jeremy Lise & Nao Sudo & Michio Suzuki & Ken Yamada & Tomoaki Yamada, 2014. "Wage, Income and Consumption Inequality in Japan, 1981-2008: from Boom to Lost Decades," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(4), pages 582-612, October.
- Takero Doi & Takeo Hoshi & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2011.
"Japanese Government Debt and Sustainability of Fiscal Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
17305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Doi, Takero & Hoshi, Takeo & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2011. "Japanese government debt and sustainability of fiscal policy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 414-433.
- Storesletten, Kjetil, 2001.
"Fiscal Implications of Immigration - A Net Present Value Calculation -,"
701, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Kjetil Storesletten, 2003. "Fiscal Implications of Immigration-A Net Present Value Calculation," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 487-506, 09.
- Takeo Hoshi & Takatoshi Ito, 2012. "Defying Gravity: How Long Will Japanese Government Bond Prices Remain High?," NBER Working Papers 18287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:htr:hcecon:441. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jonathan Conning)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.