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Productivity and Fiscal Policy in Japan: Short-Term Forecasts from the Standard Growth Model

Author

Listed:
  • Selahattin Imrohoroglu

    (Professor, Department of Finance and Business Economics, Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California (E-mail: simrohor@marshall.usc.edu))

  • Nao Sudo

    (Deputy Director, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies (currently, Research and Statistics Department), Bank of Japan (E-mail: nao.sudou@boj.or.jp))

Abstract

Japan is facing severe fiscal challenges. The aging of the population is projected to raise total pension and health expenditures. There is already a huge debt to output ratio, which is the highest among the advanced economies. In this paper we ask, gIf the consumption tax rate is raised to 15 percent, will it generate a primary surplus, and what factors are important in achieving a fiscal balance? h With the standard growth model fs simulations as gback-of-the-envelope h calculations, the quantitative findings indicate the critical need to contain government expenditures. Even an annual growth rate of 3 percent in GDP over the next 20 years may be insufficient to produce consistent primary surpluses, combined with a new consumption tax rate of 15 percent, unless prudent expenditure policies are implemented.

Suggested Citation

  • Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Nao Sudo, 2011. "Productivity and Fiscal Policy in Japan: Short-Term Forecasts from the Standard Growth Model," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 73-106, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:29:y:2011:p:73-106
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    Cited by:

    1. Selahattin ─░mrohoro─člu & Sagiri Kitao & Tomoaki Yamada, 2016. "Achieving Fiscal Balance In Japan," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57, pages 117-154, February.
    2. Gary Hansen & Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 2016. "Fiscal Reform and Government Debt in Japan: A Neoclassical Perspective," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 201-224, July.
    3. repec:eee:jjieco:v:46:y:2017:i:c:p:17-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. R. Anton Braun & Tomoyuki Nakajima, 2011. "Making the Case for a Low Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution," KIER Working Papers 788, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    5. Yamada, Tomoaki, 2012. "Income risk, macroeconomic and demographic change, and economic inequality in Japan," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 63-84.
    6. Miyazawa, Kensuke & Yamada, Junji, 2015. "The growth strategy of Abenomics and fiscal consolidation," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 82-99.
    7. repec:red:issued:16-80 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Rod Tyers & Jenny Corbett, 2012. "Japan's economic slowdown and its global implications: a review of the economic modelling," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 26(2), pages 1-28, November.
    9. R. Anton Braun & Tomoyuki Nakajima, 2018. "Why Prices Don't Respond Sooner to a Prospective Sovereign Debt Crisis"," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 235-255, July.
    10. Nakajima, Tomoyuki & Takahashi, Shuhei, 2017. "The optimum quantity of debt for Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 17-26.
    11. repec:eee:macchp:v2-2493 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Imrohoroglu, Selahattin & Sudo, Nao, 2011. "Will a Growth Miracle Reduce Debt in Japan?," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 62(1), pages 44-56, January.
    13. Ichiro Muto & Takemasa Oda & Nao Sudo, 2016. "Macroeconomic Impact of Population Aging in Japan: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generations Model," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 408-442, August.
    14. Braun, R. Anton & Joines, Douglas H., 2014. "The Implications of a graying japan for government policy," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    15. Braun, R. Anton & Joines, Douglas H., 2015. "The implications of a graying Japan for government policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1-23.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Primary balance; Fiscal policy; Productivity; Growth theory;

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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