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Fiscal sustainability in Japan

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  • Sakuragawa, Masaya
  • Hosono, Kaoru

Abstract

This paper investigates fiscal sustainability of Japan by providing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that features the low interest rate of the government bond relative to the economic growth rate to mimic the actual data. We evaluate fiscal sustainability by investigating whether the expected path of the debt-to-GDP ratio stabilizes or increases without bound. The debt-to-GDP ratio depends crucially on the projected growth rate and the fiscal policy rule. If the government does not react to the current fiscal crisis, the debt-to-GDP ratio will increase without bound, and then the fiscal policy is not sustainable. If the fiscal rule uses Bohn’s (1998) idea that involves the response of the primary surplus to the debt, sustainability improves. This rule provides a useful and realistic reform plan in the short and long runs.

Suggested Citation

  • Sakuragawa, Masaya & Hosono, Kaoru, 2011. "Fiscal sustainability in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 434-446.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:25:y:2011:i:4:p:434-446
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2011.10.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Rafał Trzeciakowski, 2015. "Windfall of Low Interest Payments and Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro Area: Analysis through Panel Fiscal Reaction Functions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(4), pages 475-510, November.
    2. Miyazawa, Kensuke & Yamada, Junji, 2015. "The growth strategy of Abenomics and fiscal consolidation," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 82-99.
    3. Takeo Hoshi & Takatoshi Ito, 2013. "Is the Sky the Limit? Can Japanese Government Bonds Continue to Defy Gravity?," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 8(2), pages 218-247, December.
    4. Matsuoka, Hideaki, 2015. "Fiscal limits and sovereign default risk in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 13-30.
    5. Miyazaki, Tomomi, 2014. "Fiscal reform and fiscal sustainability: Evidence from Australia and Sweden," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 141-151.
    6. Naoyuki Yoshino & Uwe Vollmer, 2014. "The sovereign debt crisis: why Greece, but not Japan?," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 325-344, September.
    7. Ko, Jun-Hyung & Morita, Hiroshi, 2015. "Fiscal sustainability and regime shifts in Japan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 364-375.
    8. Tomomi Miyazaki & Kazuki Onji, 2017. "The Sustainability of Japan's Government Debt: A Review," Discussion Papers 1716, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    9. Ogawa, Kazuo & Imai, Kentaro, 2014. "Why do commercial banks hold government bonds? The case of Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 201-216.
    10. repec:eee:japwor:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:12-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Kaoru Hosono, 2013. "Comment on “Is the Sky the Limit? Can Japanese Government Bonds Continue to Defy Gravity?”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 8(2), pages 248-249, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal sustainability; Low interest rate; Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model; Intermediation cost;

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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