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Joint estimates of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy for the OECD

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  • Julia Darby

    () (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

  • Jacques Melitz

    () (Department of Economics, School of Management and Languages, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh.)

Abstract

Official calculations of automatic stabilizers are seriously flawed since they rest on the assumption that the only element of social spending that reacts automatically to the cycle is unemployment compensation. This puts into question many estimates of discretionary fiscal policy. In response, we propose a simultaneous estimate of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy. This leads us, quite naturally, to a tripartite decomposition of the budget balance between revenues, social spending and other spending as a bare minimum. Our headline results for a panel of 20 OECD countries in 1981-2003 are .59 automatic stabilization in percentage-points of primary surplus balances. All of this stabilization remains following discretionary responses during contractions, but arguably only about 3/5 of it remains so in expansions while discretionary behavior cancels the rest. We pay a lot of attention to the impact of the Maastricht Treaty and the SGP on the EU members of our sample and to real time data.

Suggested Citation

  • Julia Darby & Jacques Melitz, 2011. "Joint estimates of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy for the OECD," Working Papers 1122, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:str:wpaper:1122
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    Keywords

    Fiscal stabilization; automatic stabilizers; discretionary policy.;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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