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New Evidence on the Effectiveness of Europe's Fiscal Restrictions


  • Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro


This paper investigates the past effectiveness of the Maastricht Treaty (MT) and Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) in disciplining fiscal policy in the Euro zone. We estimate fiscal reaction functions for a panel of 11 members of the Euro zone including the more recent period of the reformed SGP, and compare them with fiscal responses from other “industrialized” OECD countries. Our main finding is that in contrast with the MT, the SGP has been ineffective in tackling excessive deficits in the Euro zone. Moreover, it has also not induced a countercyclical behavior of the fiscal authorities in the region. These results evince the need for reforms in Europe’s fiscal restrictions in order to restore their credibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, 2009. "New Evidence on the Effectiveness of Europe's Fiscal Restrictions," Working Papers 2009-13, CEPII research center.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-13

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2010. "The Euro and Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters,in: Europe and the Euro, pages 287-324 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, 2009. "Bad Weather for the Stability and Growth Pact," La Lettre du CEPII, CEPII research center, issue 286.
    3. Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2005. "Fiscal policy in EMU: towards a sustainability and growth pact," Working Papers 52, Bruegel.
    4. Beetsma, Roel & Ribeiro, Marcos Poplawski & Schabert, Andreas, 2008. "A Comparison of Debt and Primary-deficit Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 6897, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Julia Darby & Jacques Melitz, 2011. "Joint Estimates of Automatic and Discretionary Fiscal Policy: the OECD 1981-2003," Working Papers 2011-14, CEPII research center.
    2. Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Frenkel, Michael & Lis, Eliza, 2013. "Do budget balance rules anchor budget balance expectations? -- Some international evidence," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80050, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Bénétrix, Agustín S. & Lane, Philip R., 2013. "Fiscal cyclicality and EMU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 164-176.
    4. Bettina Fincke & Marcin Wolski, 2016. "Are European fiscal rules that bad? Discretionary fiscal policies in New Member States," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 517-546, September.
    5. Lledó, Victor & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2013. "Fiscal Policy Implementation in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 79-91.
    6. Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2014. "Government Forecasts of Budget Balances Under Asymmetric Loss: International Evidence," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100317, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Julia Darby & Jacques Melitz, 2011. "Joint estimates of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy for the OECD," Working Papers 1122, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    8. Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2011. "Fiscal Expectations Under the Stability and Growth Pact; Evidence from Survey Data," IMF Working Papers 11/48, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Okano, Eiji, 2014. "How important is fiscal policy cooperation in a currency union?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 266-286.
    10. Serhan Cevik & Katerina Teksoz, 2014. "Deep Roots of Fiscal Behavior," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(2), pages 5-33, November.
    11. Abayomi OREDEGBE & Isaac FADEYIBI, "undated". "Diversification into Farm Tourism," EcoMod2009 21500073, EcoMod.
    12. Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2010. "Fiscal Expectations on the Stability and Growth Pact: Evidence from Survey Data," Working Papers 2010-05, CEPII research center.

    More about this item


    Fiscal restrictions; panel data; Maastricht Treaty; stability and growth pact;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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