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Fiscal Expectations on the Stability and Growth Pact: Evidence from Survey Data

  • Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro
  • Jan-Christoph Rülke

The paper uses survey data to analyze whether the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) has changed financial market’s expectations on government budget deficits in France, Germany, Italy, and the UK. Our findings indicate that accuracy of financial experts’ deficit forecasts has increased in France during the SGP. The Pact seems to have also promoted a gain in credibility of European Commission’s deficit forecasts in France, Italy, and in the UK, particularly after its reform in 2005 and up to December 2007. Nevertheless, the National Fiscal Authorities’ forecasts of France, Germany, and Italy seem to have not been credible among market experts during the SGP. These results suggest that additional measures could be taken in order to make the fiscal rules of the Pact more credible among market specialists.

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Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2010-05.

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Date of creation: Mar 2010
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2010-05
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  1. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2007. "Prudent Budgetary Policy: Political Economy of Precautionary Taxation," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/39, European University Institute.
  2. Poplawski Ribeiro, Marcos & Beetsma, Roel, 2008. "The political economy of structural reforms under a deficit restriction," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 179-198, March.
  3. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, 2009. "New Evidence on the Effectiveness of Europe's Fiscal Restrictions," Working Papers 2009-13, CEPII research center.
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