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Do budget balance rules anchor budget balance expectations? -- Some international evidence

  • Rülke, Jan-Christoph
  • Frenkel, Michael
  • Lis, Eliza
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    This is the first study that analyzes whether budget balance expectations are anchored and whether budget balance rules effectively anchor expectations. To this end, we use a unique data set which covers budget balance expectations in 17 countries that implemented a budget balance rules. While our results are mixed concerning the general impact of budget balance rules on anchoring expectations, we do find that specific features of budget balance rules are important to successfully anchor budget balance expectations.

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    File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/80050/1/VfS_2013_pid_398.pdf
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    Paper provided by Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association in its series Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order with number 80050.

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    Date of creation: 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:80050
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.socialpolitik.org/
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    1. Schuknecht, Ludger, 2004. "EU fiscal rules: issues and lessons from political economy," Working Paper Series 0421, European Central Bank.
    2. Buti, M. & Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Franco, D., 2005. "The Stability pact Pains : A Forward-Looking Assessment of the Reform Debate," Discussion Paper 2005-101, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Nina Budina & Andrea Schaechter & Anke Weber & Tidiane Kinda, 2012. "Fiscal Rules in Response to the Crisis; Toward the "Next-Generation" Rules: A New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 12/187, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Eric M. Leeper, 2009. "Anchoring Fiscal Expectations," Caepr Working Papers 2009-015, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
    5. Hallett, Andrew Hughes & Lewis, John, 2008. "European Fiscal Discipline Before And After Emu: Crash Diet Or Permanent Weight Loss?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 404-424, June.
    6. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, 2009. "New Evidence on the Effectiveness of Europe's Fiscal Restrictions," Working Papers 2009-13, CEPII research center.
    7. Anna Iara & Guntram B. Wolff, 2011. "Rules and risk in the euro area," Working Papers 615, Bruegel.
    8. Janko Gorter & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2008. "Taylor Rules for the ECB using Expectations Data," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 110(3), pages 473-488, 09.
    9. Krogstrup, Signe & Wyplosz, Charles, 2010. "A common pool theory of supranational deficit ceilings," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 269-278, February.
    10. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Fiscal Expectations Under the Stability and Growth Pact; Evidence From Survey Data," IMF Working Papers 11/48, International Monetary Fund.
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