How useful are the forecasts of intergovernmental agencies? The IMF and OECD versus the consensus
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1080/00036840121785
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
- Victor Zarnowitz & Phillip Braun, 1993.
"Twenty-two Years of the NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance,"
NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 11-94,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Victor Zarnowitz & Phillip Braun, 1992. "Twenty-two Years of the NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance," NBER Working Papers 3965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ash, J. C. K. & Smyth, D. J. & Heravi, S. M., 1990. "The accuracy of OECD forecasts of the international economy : Demand, output and prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 379-392, October.
- Batchelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1991. "Blue Chip Rationality Tests," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(4), pages 692-705, November.
- White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
- Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-1167, July.
- Ash, J. C. K. & Smyth, D. J. & Heravi, S. M., 1998. "Are OECD forecasts rational and useful?: a directional analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 381-391, September.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014.
"A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix,"
Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-708, May.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roy Batchelor & Pami Dua, 1995. "Forecaster Diversity and the Benefits of Combining Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(1), pages 68-75, January.
- Batchelor, R A, 1990. "All Forecasters Are Equal," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 143-144, January.
- Stekler, H. O., 1991. "Macroeconomic forecast evaluation techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 375-384, November.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-263, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
- McNees, Stephen K., 1989. "Forecasts and actuals: The trade-off between timeliness and accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 409-416.
- Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- repec:lan:wpaper:413 is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:lan:wpaper:470 is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:lan:wpaper:425 is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:lan:wpaper:539557 is not listed on IDEAS
- Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
- Clark, Todd & McCracken, Michael, 2013.
"Advances in Forecast Evaluation,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1107-1201,
Elsevier.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers (Old Series) 1120, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers 2011-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Zidong An & João Tovar Jalles, 2020. "On the Performance of US Fiscal Forecasts: Government vs. Private Information," Working Papers REM 2020/0130, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
- Ullrich Heilemann & Herman Stekler, 2010. "Perspectives on Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts," Working Papers 2010-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2005. "Short-Run Italian GDP Forecasting and Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5302, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.),Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 99-134, Elsevier.
- Gavin, William T. & Mandal, Rachel J., 2003.
"Evaluating FOMC forecasts,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 655-667.
- William T. Gavin & Rachel J. Mandal, 2002. "Evaluating FOMC forecasts," Working Papers 2001-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Baghestani, Hamid, 2010. "How well do experts predict interbank loan rates and spreads?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 4-6, October.
- Constantin Burgi, 2016. "What Do We Lose When We Average Expectations?," Working Papers 2016-013, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Veress, Aron & Kaiser, Lars, 2017. "Forecasting quality of professionals: Does affiliation matter?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 159-168.
- Busetti, Fabio & Marcucci, Juri, 2013.
"Comparing forecast accuracy: A Monte Carlo investigation,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 13-27.
- Fabio Busetti & Juri Marcucci & Giovanni Veronese, 2009. "Comparing forecast accuracy: A Monte Carlo investigation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 723, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George, 2011.
"Are VIX futures prices predictable? An empirical investigation,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 543-560.
- Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George, 2011. "Are VIX futures prices predictable? An empirical investigation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 543-560, April.
- Granziera, Eleonora & Hubrich, Kirstin & Moon, Hyungsik Roger, 2014.
"A predictability test for a small number of nested models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 174-185.
- Hubrich, Kirstin & Granziera, Eleonora & Moon, Hyungsik Roger, 2013. "A predictability test for a small number of nested models," Working Paper Series 1580, European Central Bank.
- Ildeberta Abreu, 2011. "International organisations’ vs. private analysts’ forecasts: an evaluation," Working Papers w201120, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & Marins, Jaqueline Terra Moura, 2017.
"Evaluation of exchange rate point and density forecasts: An application to Brazil,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 707-728.
- Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Gabriel Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins, 2016. "Evaluation of Exchange Rate Point and Density Forecasts: an application to Brazil," Working Papers Series 446, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Wu, Yih-Jiuan, 1998. "Exchange rate forecasting: an application of radial basis function neural networks," ISU General Staff Papers 1998010108000013540, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Giacomini, Raffaella & Komunjer, Ivana, 2005.
"Evaluation and Combination of Conditional Quantile Forecasts,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 416-431, October.
- Giacomini, Raffaella & Komunjer, Ivana, 2002. "Evaluation and Combination of Conditional Quantile Forecasts," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4n99t4wz, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Ivana Komunjer, 2003. "Evaluation and Combination of Conditional Quantile Forecasts," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 571, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hamid Baghestani, 2010. "Evaluating Blue Chip forecasts of the trade-weighted dollar exchange rate," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(24), pages 1879-1889.
- Hamid Baghestani, 2011. "A directional analysis of Federal Reserve predictions of growth in unit labor costs and productivity," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 303-311.
- Li, Jia & Patton, Andrew J., 2018.
"Asymptotic inference about predictive accuracy using high frequency data,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 203(2), pages 223-240.
- Jia Li & Andrew J. Patton, 2013. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Accuracy Using High Frequency Data," Working Papers 13-27, Duke University, Department of Economics.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:33:y:2001:i:2:p:225-235. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.