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All Forecasters Are Equal

Author

Listed:
  • Batchelor, R A

Abstract

From an analysis of the track records of U.S. economic forecasters, Stekler (1987) concluded that "all forecasters are not equal." This article shows that his result is based on an incorrectly defined test statistic. When a more appropriate test is conducted, the figures suggest that accuracy rankings are not significantly different from those that might be expected as a result of sampling error in a population of equally accurate forecasters.

Suggested Citation

  • Batchelor, R A, 1990. "All Forecasters Are Equal," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 143-144, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:8:y:1990:i:1:p:143-44
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Antonello D’Agostino & Kieran Mcquinn & Karl Whelan, 2012. "Are Some Forecasters Really Better Than Others?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(4), pages 715-732, June.
    2. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    3. Constantin Burgi, 2016. "What Do We Lose When We Average Expectations?," Working Papers 2016-013, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
    4. Heilemann, Ullrich & Stekler, H. O., 2003. "Has the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts improved?," Technical Reports 2003,31, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    5. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Gabi Waldhof, 2017. "Theories, techniques and the formation of German business cycle forecasts: Evidence from a survey among professional forecasters," Working Papers 2017-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
    6. Strumbelj, E. & Sikonja, M. Robnik, 2010. "Online bookmakers' odds as forecasts: The case of European soccer leagues," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 482-488, July.
    7. repec:lan:wpaper:539557 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Constantin Burgi, 2015. "Can A Subset Of Forecasters Beat The Simple Average In The Spf?," Working Papers 2015-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
    9. repec:lan:wpaper:470 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ullrich Heilemann & Herman O. Stekler, 2013. "Has The Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts for Germany Improved?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 14(2), pages 235-253, May.
    11. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Gabi Waldhof, 2017. "Theories, techniques and the formation of German business cycle forecasts: Evidence from a survey of professional forecasters," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201701, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
    12. repec:lan:wpaper:425 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Ullrich Heilemann & Herman Stekler, 2010. "Perspectives on Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts," Working Papers 2010-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
    14. Constantin Bürgi & Tara M. Sinclair, 2017. "A nonparametric approach to identifying a subset of forecasters that outperforms the simple average," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 101-115, August.
    15. Fabiana Gomez & David Pacini, 2015. "Counting Biased Forecasters: An Application of Multiple Testing Techniques," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 15/661, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    16. repec:lan:wpaper:413 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2006. "Forecast accuracy and product differentiation of Japanese Institutional Forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 395-401.
    18. Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho, 2013. "Banks, Asset Management or Consultancies' Inflation Forecasts: is there a better forecaster out there?," Working Papers Series 310, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    19. Masahiro Ashiya, 2010. "Testing homogeneity of Japanese CPI forecasters," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 435-441.
    20. Gregory, Allan W. & Yetman, James, 2004. "The evolution of consensus in macroeconomic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 461-473.

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