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How useful are the forecasts of intergovernmental agencies? The IMF and OECD versus the consensus

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Jos Jansen & Jasper de Winter, 2016. "Improving model-based near-term GDP forecasts by subjective forecasts: A real-time exercise for the G7 countries," DNB Working Papers 507, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  2. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2013. "Are government and IMF forecasts useful? An application of a new market-timing test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 118-120.
  3. Christoph S. Weber, 2018. "Central bank transparency and inflation (volatility) – new evidence," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 21-67, January.
  4. Krkoska, Libor & Teksoz, Utku, 2009. "How reliable are forecasts of GDP growth and inflation for countries with limited coverage?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 376-388, December.
  5. repec:bdr:ensayo:v:35:y:2017:i:82:p:64-77 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Timo Wollmershäuser, 2015. "Evaluation der ifo Konjunkturprognosen – ein Vergleich mit den Prognosen von Consensus Economics," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(22), pages 26-28, November.
  7. Ager, P. & Kappler, M. & Osterloh, S., 2009. "The accuracy and efficiency of the Consensus Forecasts: A further application and extension of the pooled approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 167-181.
  8. Oliver Hülsewig & Johannes Mayr & Stéphane Sorbe, 2007. "Assessing the Forecast Properties of the CESifo World Economic Climate Indicator: Evidence for the Euro Area," ifo Working Paper Series 46, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  9. Hamid Baghestani, 2008. "Consensus vs. Time‐series Forecasts of US 30‐year Home Mortgage Rates," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 45-60, January.
  10. van der Cruijsen, Carin & Demertzis, Maria, 2007. "The impact of central bank transparency on inflation expectations," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 51-66, March.
  11. Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2005. "An Overview of European Economic Indicators: Great Variety of Data on the Euro Area, Need for More Extensive Coverage of the New EU Member States," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 66-89.
  12. Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2012. "Are central bank projections rational?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(13), pages 1257-1263, September.
  13. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2007. "Forecast accuracy of the Japanese government: Its year-ahead GDP forecast is too optimistic," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 68-85, January.
  14. van der Cruijsen, C.A.B., 2008. "The economic impact of central bank transparency," Other publications TiSEM 86c1ba91-1952-45b4-adac-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  15. Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2012. "Do professional forecasters in Asian–Pacific countries believe in the monetary neutrality?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 178-181.
  16. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2016. "Improving the reliability of real-time output gap estimates using survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 358-373.
  17. Rossana Merola & Javier J. Pérez, 2012. "Fiscal forecast errors: governments vs independent agencies?," Working Papers 1233, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  18. Reitz, Stefan & Ruelke, Jan & Stadtmann, Georg, 2009. "Are oil-price-forecasters finally right? -- Regressive expectations towards more fundamental values of the oil price," MPRA Paper 15607, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2016. "Assessing macroeconomic forecasts for Japan under an asymmetric loss function," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 233-242.
  20. Fendel, Ralf & Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2011. "'Ex-ante' Taylor rules - Newly discovered evidence from the G7 countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 224-232, June.
  21. Michael Frenkel & Matthias Mauch & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2017. "Forecaster Rationality and Expectation Formation in Foreign Exchange Markets: Do Emerging Markets Differ from Industrialized Economies?," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 17-04, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
  22. H.O. Stekler & Huixia Zhang, 2013. "An evaluation of Chinese economic forecasts," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 251-259, November.
  23. Kajal Lahiri & Gultekin Isiklar & Prakash Loungani, 2006. "How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross-country surveys," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(6), pages 703-725.
  24. Dovern, Jonas & Weisser, Johannes, 2011. "Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 452-465.
  25. Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Zimmermann, Lilli, 2013. "Do private sector forecasters chase after IMF or OECD forecasts?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 217-229.
  26. Christian Pierdzioch & Jan-Christoph Rulke & Georg Stadtmann, 2011. "Do professional economists' forecasts reflect Okun's law? Some evidence for the G7 countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(11), pages 1365-1373.
  27. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Maassen, N.R., 2015. "Consensus forecasters: How good are they individually and why?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2015-21, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  28. Lin, Vera Shanshan & Goodwin, Paul & Song, Haiyan, 2014. "Accuracy and bias of experts’ adjusted forecasts," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 156-174.
  29. Reitz Stefan & Rülke Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann Georg, 2010. "Regressive Oil Price Expectations Toward More Fundamental Values of the Oil Price," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(4), pages 454-466, August.
  30. Isiklar, Gultekin & Lahiri, Kajal, 2007. "How far ahead can we forecast? Evidence from cross-country surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 167-187.
  31. Fendel, Ralf & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2012. "Some international evidence on the Lucas Supply Function," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 157-160.
  32. Jakub Rybacki, 2019. "Fiscal Deficit Forecasts by International Institutions: Evidence for a Double Standard?," Working Papers 2019-044, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
  33. repec:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:3:p:694-706 is not listed on IDEAS
  34. Bryan Campbell & Steve Murphy, 2006. "The Recent Performance of the Canadian Forecasting Industry," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 32(1), pages 23-40, March.
  35. Merola, Rossana & Pérez, Javier J., 2013. "Fiscal forecast errors: Governments versus independent agencies?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 285-299.
  36. Fendel, Ralf & Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2011. ""Ex-ante" Taylor rules and expectation forming in emerging markets," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 230-244, June.
  37. repec:kap:empiri:v:44:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s10663-016-9322-x is not listed on IDEAS
  38. Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2012. "Do professional forecasters apply the Phillips curve and Okun's law? Evidence from six Asian-Pacific countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 317-324.
  39. Martin Mühleisen & Kornelia Krajnyak & Stephan Danninger & David Hauner & Bennett W Sutton, 2005. "How Do Canadian Budget Forecasts Compare with Those of Other Industrial Countries?," IMF Working Papers 05/66, International Monetary Fund.
  40. Prof Roy Batchelor, 2007. "Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts," ifo Working Paper Series 39, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  41. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2013. "Taylor rules and exchange rate predictability in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1008-1031.
  42. Jansen, W. Jos & Jin, Xiaowen & de Winter, Jasper M., 2016. "Forecasting and nowcasting real GDP: Comparing statistical models and subjective forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 411-436.
  43. Peter Claeys, 2017. "Uncertainty spillover and policy reactions," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 35(82), pages 64-77, April.
  44. Bleich, Dirk & Fendel, Ralf & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2012. "Inflation targeting makes the difference: Novel evidence on inflation stabilization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1092-1105.
  45. Jaqueson K. Galimberti & Marcelo L. Moura, 2011. "Improving the reliability of real-time Hodrick-Prescott filtering using survey forecasts," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 159, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  46. Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Silgoner, Maria & Wörz, Julia, 2016. "Herding behavior of business cycle forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-33.
  47. Li, Ningzhong & Richardson, Scott & Tuna, İrem, 2014. "Macro to micro: Country exposures, firm fundamentals and stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 1-20.
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