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Are central bank projections rational?

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  • Jan-Christoph Rülke

Abstract

Central bank projections have gained considerable attention for monetary policy modelling. However, less is known about the nature of central bank projections. This letter explores the unbiasedness and rationality of more than 2000 growth and inflation projections published by 15 major central banks. The results indicate that central bank projections are rational and unbiased in most cases. Interestingly, inflation projections are more biased than growth projections.

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  • Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2012. "Are central bank projections rational?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(13), pages 1257-1263, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:19:y:2012:i:13:p:1257-1263
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2011.619482
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul Hubert, 2015. "Do Central Bank Forecasts Influence Private Agents? Forecasting Performance versus Signals," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(4), pages 771-789, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sebastian Gomez-Barrero & Julian A. Parra-Polania, 2014. "Central Bank Strategic Forecasting," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(4), pages 802-810, October.

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