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Housing starts in Canada, Japan, and the United States: Do forecasters herd?

  • Pierdzioch, Christian
  • Rülke, Jan Christoph
  • Stadtmann, Georg

Recent price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using survey data for Canada, Japan, and the United States, we did not find evidence of forecaster herding. On the contrary, forecasters anti-herd and, thereby, tend to intentionally scatter their forecasts around the consensus forecast. The extent of anti-herding seems to vary over time. For Canada and the United States, we found that more pronounced anti-herding leads to lower forecast accuracy.

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Paper provided by European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 320.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:euvwdp:320
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  1. Elliott, Graham & Ito, Takatoshi, 1999. "Heterogeneous expectations and tests of efficiency in the yen/dollar forward exchange rate market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 435-456, April.
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