IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Have Equity REITs Experienced Periodically Collapsing Bubbles?

  • James Payne

    ()

  • George Waters

    ()

This paper uses the momentum threshold autoregressive (MTAR) model and the residuals-augmented Dickey–Fuller (RADF) test to examine the possibility of Evans’ (1991) periodically collapsing bubbles in the equity REIT market. The results are mixed. The MTAR model indicates that overall real equity REIT prices and dividends are cointegrated with asymmetric adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium. However, the estimated coefficients of the MTAR model do not indicate the presence of periodically collapsing bubbles. Adjustment in the standard cointegration tests of bubbles for skewness and excess kurtosis via the RADF test fails to reject the null hypothesis of no cointegration, leaving the possibility of periodically collapsing bubbles. The MTAR and RADF results with respect to equity REIT sub-sectors are mixed. Lodging is the only sub-sector in which both the MTAR and RADF results support periodically collapsing bubbles. Moreover, market fundamentals proxied by two alternative measures of capacity utilization do not explain either real equity REIT prices or dividends. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11146-007-9007-0
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

Volume (Year): 34 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
Pages: 207-224

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:34:y:2007:i:2:p:207-224
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Dezhbakhsh, Hashem & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, 1990. "On the Presence of Speculative Bubbles in Stock Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(01), pages 101-112, March.
  2. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  3. Yvette Harman & Thomas Zuehlke, 2004. "Duration dependence testing for speculative bubbles," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 147-154, June.
  4. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
  5. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "The Theory of Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(392), pages 746-54, September.
  6. Chui, Andy C. W. & Titman, Sheridan & Wei, K. C. John, 2003. "Intra-industry momentum: the case of REITs," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 363-387, May.
  7. Deqing Diane Li & Kenneth Yung, 2004. "Short Interests in Real Estate Investment Trusts," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 7(1), pages 56-70.
  8. Damodaran, Aswath & John, Kose & Liu, Crocker H., 1997. "The determinants of organizational form changes: evidence and implications from real estate," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 169-192, August.
  9. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-48, August.
  10. David C. Ling & Andy Naranjo, 1999. "The Integration of Commercial Real Estate Markets and Stock Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(3), pages 483-515.
  11. Chan, Su Han & Erickson, John & Wang, Ko, 2002. "Real Estate Investment Trusts: Structure: Structure, Performance, and Investment Opportunities," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195155341, March.
  12. Camerer, Colin, 1989. " Bubbles and Fads in Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 3-41.
  13. Chinmoy Ghosh & Raja Nag & C. F. Sirmans, 2000. "The Pricing of Seasoned Equity Offerings: Evidence from REITs," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(3), pages 363-384.
  14. Kim, Kyung-Hwan & Suh, Seoung Hwan, 1993. "Speculation and Price Bubbles in the Korean and Japanese Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 73-87, January.
  15. Charemza, Wojciech W. & Deadman, Derek F., 1995. "Speculative bubbles with stochastic explosive roots: The failure of unit root testing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 153-163, June.
  16. Topol, Richard, 1991. "Bubbles and Volatility of Stock Prices: Effect of Mimetic Contagion," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 786-800, July.
  17. Damodaran, Aswath & Liu, Crocker H, 1993. "Insider Trading as a Signal of Private Information," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 79-119.
  18. Bohl, Martin T., 2003. "Periodically collapsing bubbles in the US stock market?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 385-397.
  19. Craig S. Hakkio & Mark Rush, 1990. "Cointegration: how short is the long run?," Research Working Paper 90-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  20. Su Han Chan & Wai Kin Leung & Ko Wang, 1998. "Institutional Investment in REITs: Evidence and Implications," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 16(3), pages 357-374.
  21. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  22. Grenadier, Steven R, 1995. "The Persistence of Real Estate Cycles," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 95-119, March.
  23. Im, K.S., 1996. "Least Square Approach to Non-Normal Disturbances," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9603, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  24. L. Sarno & M. P. Taylor, 2003. "An empirical investigation of asset price bubbles in Latin American emerging financial markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 635-643.
  25. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, March.
  26. John Okunev & Pat Wilson, 1995. "Using Non-Linear Tests to Examine Integration Between Real Estate and Equity Markets," Working Paper Series 47, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  27. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1990. "Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 3368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. William M. Getry & Deen Kemsley & Christopher J. Mayer, 2003. "Dividend Taxes and Share Prices: Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trusts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 261-282, 02.
  29. Glascock, John L & Lu, Chiuling & So, Raymond W, 2000. "Further Evidence on the Integration of REIT, Bond, and Stock Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 177-94, March.
  30. Maurice J. Roche & Kieran McQuinn, 2000. "Speculation in agricultural land," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1010700, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  31. Hofmann, Anett & Wan, Guanghua, 2013. "Determinants of Urbanization," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 355, Asian Development Bank.
  32. Benjamas Jirasakuldech & Robert Campbell & John Knight, 2006. "Are There Rational Speculative Bubbles in REITs?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 105-127, March.
  33. Clayton, Jim, 1997. "Are Housing Price Cycles Driven by Irrational Expectations?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 341-63, May.
  34. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-76, April.
  35. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 1998. "Periodically collapsing stock price bubbles: a robust test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 221-228, November.
  36. James E. Payne & George A. Waters, 2005. "REIT markets: periodically collapsing negative bubbles?," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 65-69, March.
  37. James D. Peterson & Cheng-Ho Hsieh, 1997. "Do Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds Explain Returns on REITs?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 321-345.
  38. G. Capelle-Blancard & H. Raymond, 2004. "Empirical evidence on periodically collapsing stock price bubbles," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 61-69.
  39. Ko Wang & John Erickson & George Gau & Su Han Chan, 1995. "Market Microstructure and Real Estate Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 23(1), pages 85-100.
  40. Enders, Walter & Granger, C. W. J., 1998. "Unit Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Staff General Research Papers 1388, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  41. Yuming Li & Ko Wang, 1995. "The Predictability of REIT Returns and Market Segmentatio," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 10(4), pages 471-482.
  42. Howe, John S & Shilling, James D, 1988. " Capital Structure Theory and REIT Security Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 983-93, September.
  43. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-30, June.
  44. Behzad T. Diba & Herschel I. Grossman, 1984. "Rational Bubbles in the Price of Gold," NBER Working Papers 1300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  45. Scott D. Below & Joseph K. Kiely & Willard McIntosh, 1996. "REIT Pricing Efficiency; Should Investors Still Be Concerned?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 12(3), pages 397-412.
  46. Okunev, John & Wilson, Patrick & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2000. "The Causal Relationship between Real Estate and Stock Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 251-61, November.
  47. Hendershott, Patric H, 2000. "Property Asset Bubbles: Evidence from the Sydney Office Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 67-81, January.
  48. MJ Roche & K McQuinn, 2001. "Testing for speculation in agricultural land in Ireland," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 28(2), pages 95-115, June.
  49. Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-30, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:34:y:2007:i:2:p:207-224. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn)

or (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.