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Testing for speculation in agricultural land in Ireland

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  • MJ Roche
  • K McQuinn

Abstract

Agricultural land prices in many developed countries rose and then fell dramatically over a relatively short period in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Most of the models in the literature that describe the dynamic behaviour of agricultural land prices suggest that these sharp price movements were not completely due to market fundamentals. Many attribute part of this volatility to speculation. This phenomenon is investigated by estimating a general regime-switching model that nests many types of speculative behaviour as special cases. We find strong evidence to support a partially collapsing bubbles model for Irish agricultural land prices. Copyright 2001, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • MJ Roche & K McQuinn, 2001. "Testing for speculation in agricultural land in Ireland," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 28(2), pages 95-115, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:28:y:2001:i:2:p:95-115
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    Cited by:

    1. Maximilian Brauers & Matthias Thomas & Joachim Zietz, 2014. "Are There Rational Bubbles in REITs? New Evidence from a Complex Systems Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 165-184, August.
    2. James Payne & George Waters, 2007. "Have Equity REITs Experienced Periodically Collapsing Bubbles?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 207-224, February.
    3. Hao Fang & Yen-Hsien Lee, 2013. "Are the Global REIT Markets Efficient by a New Approach?," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(6), pages 743-757, December.
    4. Mc Quinn, Kieran, 2004. "A Model of the Irish Housing Sector," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/04, Central Bank of Ireland.
    5. Jakob B Madsen, 2011. "A q Model of House Prices," Monash Economics Working Papers 03-11, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    6. Sala Rios, Mercé & Torres Solé, Teresa, 2007. "Factores No Agronómicos: Análisis De Su Influencia En Los Precios De La Tierra Agraria/Analysis on the infl uence of Non-agronomic-factors over the prices of agricultural land," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 25, pages 145-164, Abril.
    7. Benjamas Jirasakuldech & Robert Campbell & John Knight, 2006. "Are There Rational Speculative Bubbles in REITs?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 105-127, March.
    8. Woltjer, Geert B. & Luijt, Jan L. & Jongeneel, Roelof A., 2008. "A Land Market Cycle in the Netherlands," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44376, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Claudio Araujo & Catherine Araujo Bonjean & Jean-Louis Combes & Pascale Combes-Motel, 2006. "Insécurité foncière et croissance économique au Brésil," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 14(1), pages 79-97.

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