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A q Model of House Prices

  • Jakob B Madsen

This paper develops a Tobin’s q model of house prices which shows that changes in interest rates, demography, and income are likely to have only temporary effects on house prices while house prices in the long run are determined by prices of developed land, value added taxes, stamp duties, and construction costs. Empirical estimates show that agricultural land prices are a proxy for urban land prices, which, together with construction costs are the key determinants of house prices in the long run.

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File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/eco/research/papers/2011/0311modelmadsen.pdf
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Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Economics in its series Monash Economics Working Papers with number 03-11.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mos:moswps:2011-03
Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia
Phone: +61-3-9905-2493
Fax: +61-3-9905-5476
Web page: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/eco/
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  8. Meen, Geoffrey, 2002. "The Time-Series Behavior of House Prices: A Transatlantic Divide?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, March.
  9. Buckley, Robert & Ermisch, John, 1982. "Government Policy and House Prices in the United Kingdom: An Econometric Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 44(4), pages 273-304, November.
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  12. Maurice J. Roche & Kieran McQuinn, 2000. "Speculation in agricultural land," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1010700, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
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  16. Mundlak, Yair & Larson, Donald F. & Crego, Al, 1997. "Agricultural development : issues, evidence, and consequences," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1811, The World Bank.
  17. Dougherty, Ann & Van Order, Robert, 1982. "Inflation, Housing Costs, and the Consumer Price Index," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(1), pages 154-64, March.
  18. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
  19. Kearl, J R, 1979. "Inflation, Mortgages, and Housing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 1115-38, October.
  20. Wheaton, William C., 1974. "A comparative static analysis of urban spatial structure," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 223-237, October.
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  22. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
  23. Meen, Geoffrey P, 1990. "The Removal of Mortgage Market Constraints and the Implications for Econometric Modelling of UK House Prices," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(1), pages 1-23, February.
  24. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
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