IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/34041.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How Important are Oil and Money Shocks in Explaining Housing Market Fluctuations in an Oil-exporting Country?: Evidence from Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Khiabani, Nasser

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of oil price and monetary shocks on the Iranian housing market in a Bayesian SVAR framework. The prior information for the contemporaneous identification of the SVAR model is derived from standard economic theory. To deal with uncertainty in the identification schemes, I calculate posterior model probabilities for the SVAR model identified by a different set of over-identification restrictions. In order to draw accurate inferences regarding the effectiveness of the shocks in an over-identified Bayesian SVAR, a Bayesian Monte Carlo integration method is applied. The findings indicate that oil price shocks explain a substantial portion of housing market fluctuations. Housing prices increase in response to a positive credit shock, but only with a noticeably smaller magnitude when compared with the response to a positive oil price shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Khiabani, Nasser, 2010. "How Important are Oil and Money Shocks in Explaining Housing Market Fluctuations in an Oil-exporting Country?: Evidence from Iran," MPRA Paper 34041, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Mar 2011.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:34041
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/34041/1/MPRA_paper_34041.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Torvik, Ragnar, 2001. "Learning by doing and the Dutch disease," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 285-306, February.
    2. Maclennan, Duncan & Muellbauer, John & Stephens, Mark, 1998. "Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and EMU," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 14(3), pages 54-80, Autumn.
    3. Massimo GIULIODORI, 2002. "Monetary Policy Shocks and the Role of House Prices Across European Countries," Working Papers 164, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    4. Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 2001. "Natural resources, education, and economic development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 847-859, May.
    5. Marek Jarocinski & Frank Smets, 2008. "House prices and the stance of monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Jul), pages 339-366.
    6. Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "Likelihood preserving normalization in multiple equation models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 329-347, June.
    7. van Wijnbergen, Sweder J G, 1984. "The 'Dutch Disease': A Disease after All?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 41-55, March.
    8. Aoki, Kosuke & Proudman, James & Vlieghe, Gertjan, 2004. "House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 414-435, October.
    9. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 359-413.
    10. Looney, Robert E., 1991. "Diversification in a small oil exporting economy : The impact of the Dutch disease on Kuwait's industrialization," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 31-41, March.
    11. Elbourne, Adam, 2008. "The UK housing market and the monetary policy transmission mechanism: An SVAR approach," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 65-87, March.
    12. Lastrapes, William D., 2002. "The Real Price of Housing and Money Supply Shocks: Time Series Evidence and Theoretical Simulations," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 40-74, March.
    13. Jakob B Madsen, 2011. "A q Model of House Prices," Monash Economics Working Papers 03-11, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    14. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
    15. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
    16. Kuralbayeva, Karlygash & Kutan, Ali M. & Wyzan, Michael L., 2001. "Is Kazakhstan vulnerable to the Dutch disease?," ZEI Working Papers B 29-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    17. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    18. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    19. P J Forsyth & J A Kay, 1980. "The economic implications of North Sea Oil Revenues," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 1-28, July.
    20. Meen, Geoffrey, 2002. "The Time-Series Behavior of House Prices: A Transatlantic Divide?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, March.
    21. James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
    22. Kosuke Aoki & James Proudman & Gertjan Vlieghe, 2002. "Houses as collateral: has the link between house prices and consumption in the U.K. changed?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 163-177.
    23. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2001. "The Transmission Mechanism and the Role of Asset Prices in Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Kenny, Geoff, 1999. "Modelling the demand and supply sides of the housing market: evidence from Ireland1," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 389-409, August.
    25. Garratt, Anthony & Koop, Gary & Mise, Emi & Vahey, Shaun P., 2009. "Real-Time Prediction With U.K. Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 480-491.
    26. Alvin Tan & Graham Voss, 2003. "Consumption and Wealth in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 79(244), pages 39-56, March.
    27. Mohammad R. Jahan‐Parvar & Hassan Mohammadi, 2009. "Oil prices and competitiveness: time series evidence from six oil‐producing countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(1), pages 98-118, January.
    28. Meen, Geoffrey P, 1990. "The Removal of Mortgage Market Constraints and the Implications for Econometric Modelling of UK House Prices," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(1), pages 1-23, February.
    29. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    30. Iacoviello, Matteo, 2000. "House prices and the macroeconomy in Europe: Results from a structural var analysis," Working Paper Series 18, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Le, Thai-Ha, 2015. "Do soaring global oil prices heat up the housing market? Evidence from Malaysia," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-8, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Khiabani, Nasser, 2015. "Oil inflows and housing market fluctuations in an oil-exporting country: Evidence from Iran," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 59-76.
    2. Renée A. Fry & Vance L. Martin & Nicholas Voukelatos, 2010. "Overvaluation in Australian Housing and Equity Markets: Wealth Effects or Monetary Policy?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(275), pages 465-485, December.
    3. Le, Thai-Ha, 2015. "Do soaring global oil prices heat up the housing market? Evidence from Malaysia," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-8, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Elbourne, Adam, 2008. "The UK housing market and the monetary policy transmission mechanism: An SVAR approach," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 65-87, March.
    5. Geoffrey Meen & Alexander Mihailov & Yehui Wang, 2016. "Endogenous UK Housing Cycles and the Risk Premium: Understanding the Next Housing Crisis," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2016-02, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    6. Charles Rahal,, 2016. "Housing markets and unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 67-80.
    7. Sterken, Elmer, 2003. "Monetary transmission, asset prices, and the business cycle indicator in Germany," CCSO Working Papers 200315, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    8. Dana Orfaig, 2017. "A Structural VAR Model for Estimating the Link between Monetary Policy and Home Prices in Israel," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2017.09, Bank of Israel.
    9. Geoffrey Meen, 2008. "Ten New Propositions in UK Housing Macroeconomics: An Overview of the First Years of the Century," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 45(13), pages 2759-2781, December.
    10. Madsen, Jakob B., 2012. "A behavioral model of house prices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 21-38.
    11. repec:zbw:bofism:2012_047 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. John N. Muellbauer, 2007. "Housing, credit and consumer expenditure," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 267-334.
    13. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2012_047.
    14. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2012_047.
    15. Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul & Bashar, Omar H.M.N. & Ahmed, Huson Joher Ali, 2012. "Monetary policy and the housing market in Australia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 849-863.
    16. Michael Haliassos & Pany Karamanou & Constantinos Ktoris & George Syrichas, 2008. "Mortgage Debt, Social Customs and Financial Innovation," Working Papers 2008-2, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    17. Musso, Alberto & Neri, Stefano & Stracca, Livio, 2011. "Housing, consumption and monetary policy: How different are the US and the euro area?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 3019-3041, November.
    18. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2017. "Asset prices regime-switching and the role of inflation targeting monetary policy," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 97-112.
    19. Jane K. Dokko & Brian M. Doyle & Skander J. van den Heuvel & Michael T. Kiley & Jinill Kim & Shane M. Sherlund & Jae W. Sim, 2009. "Monetary policy and the housing bubble," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Le, Thai-Ha, 2015. "Do soaring global oil prices heat up the housing market? Evidence from Malaysia," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-30.
    21. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing market fluctuations; Oil price shocks; Credit shocks; Bayesian Structural VAR; Bayesian model averaging (BMA); Bayesian Monte Carlo integration method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:34041. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.