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Monetary Policy Shocks and the Role of House Prices Across European Countries

  • Massimo Giuliodori

This paper provides a discussion of the `housing market' channels of the monetarytransmission mechanism (MTM) and offers some evidence on institutional differences in the European housing and mortgage markets. Using a number of VAR models, estimated individually for nine European countries over the pre-EMU period, we find that house prices are significantly affected by monetary policy shocks. The relative role of these policy-induced fluctuations in house prices for private consumption is then investigated. We show that house prices may enhance the effects of monetary shocks on consumer spending in those economies where housing and mortgage markets are relatively more developed and competitive.

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Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 015.

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Date of creation: Nov 2004
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:015
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Web page: http://www.dnb.nl/en/

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  1. Maria Concetta Chiuri & Tullio Jappelli, 2000. "Financial Market Imperfections and Home Ownership: A Comparative Study," CSEF Working Papers 44, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 01 Dec 2000.
  2. Christopher A. Sims, 1998. "Role of interest rate policy in the generation and propagation of business cycles: what has changed since the '30s?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 42(Jun), pages 121-175.
  3. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
  4. Case, Karl E. & Quigley, John M. & Shiller, Robert J., 2001. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus The Housing Market," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt44k6g6vx, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  5. Iacoviello, Matteo, 2000. "House prices and the macroeconomy in Europe: Results from a structural var analysis," Working Paper Series 0018, European Central Bank.
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  7. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1999. "Legal Structure, Financial Structure, and the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism," NBER Working Papers 7151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Nathalie Girouard & Sveinbjörn Blöndal, 2001. "House Prices and Economic Activity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 279, OECD Publishing.
  9. By James Morsink & Tamim Bayoumi, 2001. "A Peek Inside the Black Box: The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Japan," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 2.
  10. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Waston, Mark, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 97-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  11. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
  12. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," NBER Working Papers 2534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1701-27, November.
  14. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
  15. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
  16. Luca Sala, 2002. "Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area: A Factor Model Approach," Macroeconomics 0205005, EconWPA, revised 15 May 2002.
  17. Benedict J. Clements & Zenon Kontolemis G. & Joaquim Vieira Ferreira Levy, 2001. "Monetary Policy Under EMU Differences in the Transition Mechanism?," IMF Working Papers 01/102, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Sydney Ludvigson & Charles Steindel & Martin Lettau, 2002. "Monetary policy transmission through the consumption-wealth channel," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 117-133.
  19. Mojon, Benoît, 2000. "Financial structure and the interest rate channel of ECB monetary policy," Working Paper Series 0040, European Central Bank.
  20. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
  21. Maclennan, Duncan & Muellbauer, John & Stephens, Mark, 1999. "Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2062, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. I. Arnold & P.J.A. van Els & J. de Haan, 2002. "Wealth Effects and Monetary Policy," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 719, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  23. Fernando Barran & Virginie Coudert & Benoît Mojon, 1996. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy in the European Countries," Working Papers 1996-03, CEPII research center.
  24. Gali, Jordi, 1992. "How Well Does the IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 709-38, May.
  25. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
  26. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  27. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2001. "The Transmission Mechanism and the Role of Asset Prices in Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Alexander Ludwig & Torsten Sløk, 2002. "The Impact of Changes in Stock Prices and House Priceson Consumption in OECD Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/1, International Monetary Fund.
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