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Monetary Policy Shocks and the Role of House Prices Across European Countries

  • Massimo Giuliodori

This paper provides a discussion of the `housing market' channels of the monetarytransmission mechanism (MTM) and offers some evidence on institutional differences in the European housing and mortgage markets. Using a number of VAR models, estimated individually for nine European countries over the pre-EMU period, we find that house prices are significantly affected by monetary policy shocks. The relative role of these policy-induced fluctuations in house prices for private consumption is then investigated. We show that house prices may enhance the effects of monetary shocks on consumer spending in those economies where housing and mortgage markets are relatively more developed and competitive.

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File URL: http://www.dnb.nl/binaries/Working%20Paper%2015_tcm46-146672.pdf
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Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 015.

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Date of creation: Nov 2004
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:015
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Web page: http://www.dnb.nl/en/

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  1. Bayoumi, Tamim & Morsink, James, 2000. "A Peek Inside The Black Box: The Monetary Transmission Mechanism In Japan," CEPR Discussion Papers 2435, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  3. Case, Karl E. & Quigley, John M. & Shiller, Robert J., 2001. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus The Housing Market," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt44k6g6vx, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  4. Claudio E. V. Borio & Wilhelm Fritz, 1995. "The response of short-term bank lending rates to policy rates: a cross-country perspective," BIS Working Papers 27, Bank for International Settlements.
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  8. Iacoviello, Matteo, 2000. "House prices and the macroeconomy in Europe: Results from a structural var analysis," Working Paper Series 0018, European Central Bank.
  9. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 435-39, May.
  10. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2001. "The Transmission Mechanism and the Role of Asset Prices in Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Gali, Jordi, 1992. "How Well Does the IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 709-38, May.
  12. Nathalie Girouard & Sveinbjörn Blöndal, 2001. "House Prices and Economic Activity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 279, OECD Publishing.
  13. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Waston, Mark, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 97-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  14. I. Arnold & P.J.A. van Els & J. de Haan, 2002. "Wealth Effects and Monetary Policy," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 719, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  15. Christopher A. Sims, 1998. "Role of interest rate policy in the generation and propagation of business cycles: what has changed since the '30s?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 42(Jun), pages 121-175.
  16. Christopher A. Sims, 1992. "Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1011, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  17. Muellbauer, J & Murphy, A, 1996. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economics Papers 125, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  18. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1999. "Legal structure, financial structure, and the monetary policy transmission mechanism," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 9-28.
  19. Mojon, Benoît, 2000. "Financial structure and the interest rate channel of ECB monetary policy," Working Paper Series 0040, European Central Bank.
  20. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
  21. Maria Concetta Chiuri & Tullio Jappelli, 2000. "Financial Market Imperfections and Home Ownership: A Comparative Study," CSEF Working Papers 44, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 01 Dec 2000.
  22. Maclennan, Duncan & Muellbauer, John & Stephens, Mark, 1998. "Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and EMU," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 54-80, Autumn.
  23. Luca Sala, 2002. "Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area: A Factor Model Approach," Macroeconomics 0205005, EconWPA, revised 15 May 2002.
  24. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  25. Benedict J. Clements & Zenon Kontolemis G. & Joaquim Vieira Ferreira Levy, 2001. "Monetary Policy Under EMU Differences in the Transition Mechanism?," IMF Working Papers 01/102, International Monetary Fund.
  26. Fernando Barran & Virginie Coudert & Benoît Mojon, 1996. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy in the European Countries," Working Papers 1996-03, CEPII research center.
  27. Alexander Ludwig & Torsten Sløk, 2002. "The Impact of Changes in Stock Prices and House Priceson Consumption in OECD Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/1, International Monetary Fund.
  28. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
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