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Overvaluation In Australian Housing And Equity Markets: Wealth Effects Or Monetary Policy?

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  • Renee A. Fry
  • Vance L. Martin
  • Nicholas Voukelatos

Abstract

A 7 variate SVAR model is used to identify the presence and causes of overvaluation in real house prices in Australia from 2002 to 2008. An important feature of the model is the develepment of a housing sector where long-run restrictions are derived from economic theory to identify housing demand and supply shocks. The empirical results show that real house prices were overvalued during the period, reaching a peak of nearly 20% by the end of 2003. Important factors driving the observed overvaluation are housing demand shocks prior to 2006, and macroeconomic shocks in the goods market post 2006. Wealth effects from portfolio shocks in equity markets are also found to be an important driver. The results also suggest that monetary policy is not an important contributing factor in the overvaluation of house prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Renee A. Fry & Vance L. Martin & Nicholas Voukelatos, 2009. "Overvaluation In Australian Housing And Equity Markets: Wealth Effects Or Monetary Policy?," CAMA Working Papers 2009-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2009-10
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2017-02/10_fry_martin_voukelatos_2009.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Philip Inyeob Ji & Glenn Otto, 2015. "Explosive Behaviour in Australian Housing Markets: Rational Bubbles or Not?," Discussion Papers 2015-27, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    2. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2014. "Analysing interest rate mark-ups in the Australian mortgage market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 343-361.
    3. Kevin Davis, 2011. "The Australian Financial System in the 2000s: Dodging the Bullet," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Hugo Gerard & Jonathan Kearns (ed.), The Australian Economy in the 2000s Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. Tuan Phan, 2014. "Output Composition of the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism: Is Australia Different?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 90(290), pages 382-399, September.
    5. Judith Yates, 2011. "Housing in Australia in the 2000s: On the Agenda Too Late?," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Hugo Gerard & Jonathan Kearns (ed.), The Australian Economy in the 2000s Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul & Bashar, Omar H.M.N. & Ahmed, Huson Joher Ali, 2012. "Monetary policy and the housing market in Australia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 849-863.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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