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Overvaluation in Australian Housing and Equity Markets: Wealth Effects or Monetary Policy?

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Listed author(s):
  • RENÉE A. FRY
  • VANCE L. MARTIN
  • NICHOLAS VOUKELATOS

Abstract

A structural vector autoregression model is used to identify overvaluation in house prices in Australia from 2002 to 2008. An important feature is the development of a housing sector where long-run restrictions are derived from theory to identify housing demand and supply shocks. The results show strong evidence of overvaluation in real house prices, reaching a peak of just over 15 per cent by the end of 2003. Factors driving overvaluation are housing demand shocks before 2006 and post‐2006 macroeconomic shocks. Wealth effects from equity markets are also important. The results suggest that monetary policy is not an important contributor to overvaluation of house prices.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1475-4932.2010.00639.x
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Article provided by The Economic Society of Australia in its journal Economic Record.

Volume (Year): 86 (2010)
Issue (Month): 275 (December)
Pages: 465-485

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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:86:y:2010:i:275:p:465-485
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Keywords: E21 ; E44 ; C32 ; R21 ;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
  • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
  • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
  • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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  1. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1990. "Symposium on Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 13-18, Spring.
  2. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
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  4. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
  5. Kosuke Aoki & James Proudman & Gertjan Vlieghe, 2002. "Houses as collateral: has the link between house prices and consumption in the U.K. changed?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 163-177.
  6. Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, May.
  7. Marek Jarocinski & Frank Smets, 2008. "House prices and the stance of monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 339-366.
  8. Steven C. Bourassa & Patric H. Hendershott, 1995. "Australian Capital City Real House Prices, 1979-1993," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 28(3), pages 16-26.
  9. Sydney Ludvigson & Charles Steindel & Martin Lettau, 2002. "Monetary policy transmission through the consumption-wealth channel," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 117-133.
  10. Nikola Dvornak & Marion Kohler, 2007. "Housing Wealth, Stock Market Wealth and Consumption: A Panel Analysis for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(261), pages 117-130, 06.
  11. Iacoviello, Matteo, 2000. "House prices and the macroeconomy in Europe: Results from a structural var analysis," Working Paper Series 0018, European Central Bank.
  12. Glenn Otto, 2007. "The Growth of House Prices in Australian Capital Cities: What Do Economic Fundamentals Explain?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 40(3), pages 225-238, 09.
  13. Elbourne, Adam, 2008. "The UK housing market and the monetary policy transmission mechanism: An SVAR approach," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 65-87, March.
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  15. Capozza, Dennis R. & Helsley, Robert W., 1989. "The fundamentals of land prices and urban growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 295-306, November.
  16. Baffoe-Bonnie, John, 1998. "The Dynamic Impact of Macroeconomic Aggregates on Housing Prices and Stock of Houses: A National and Regional Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 179-197, September.
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Cited by:

  1. Philip Inyeob Ji & Glenn Otto, 2015. "Explosive Behaviour in Australian Housing Markets: Rational Bubbles or Not?," Discussion Papers 2015-27, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  2. Tuan Phan, 2014. "Output Composition of the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism: Is Australia Different?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 90(290), pages 382-399, 09.
  3. Judith Yates, 2011. "Housing in Australia in the 2000s: On the Agenda Too Late?," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Hugo Gerard & Jonathan Kearns (ed.), The Australian Economy in the 2000s Reserve Bank of Australia.
  4. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2014. "Analysing interest rate mark-ups in the Australian mortgage market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 343-361.
  5. Kevin Davis, 2011. "The Australian Financial System in the 2000s: Dodging the Bullet," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Hugo Gerard & Jonathan Kearns (ed.), The Australian Economy in the 2000s Reserve Bank of Australia.
  6. Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul & Bashar, Omar H.M.N. & Ahmed, Huson Joher Ali, 2012. "Monetary policy and the housing market in Australia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 849-863.

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