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Overvaluation in Australian Housing and Equity Markets: Wealth Effects or Monetary Policy?

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  • RENÉE A. FRY
  • VANCE L. MARTIN
  • NICHOLAS VOUKELATOS

Abstract

A structural vector autoregression model is used to identify overvaluation in house prices in Australia from 2002 to 2008. An important feature is the development of a housing sector where long-run restrictions are derived from theory to identify housing demand and supply shocks. The results show strong evidence of overvaluation in real house prices, reaching a peak of just over 15 per cent by the end of 2003. Factors driving overvaluation are housing demand shocks before 2006 and post‐2006 macroeconomic shocks. Wealth effects from equity markets are also important. The results suggest that monetary policy is not an important contributor to overvaluation of house prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Renée A. Fry & Vance L. Martin & Nicholas Voukelatos, 2010. "Overvaluation in Australian Housing and Equity Markets: Wealth Effects or Monetary Policy?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(275), pages 465-485, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:86:y:2010:i:275:p:465-485
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1475-4932.2010.00639.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Philip Inyeob Ji & Glenn Otto, 2015. "Explosive Behaviour in Australian Housing Markets: Rational Bubbles or Not?," Discussion Papers 2015-27, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    2. Tuan Phan, 2014. "Output Composition of the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism: Is Australia Different?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 90(290), pages 382-399, September.
    3. Judith Yates, 2011. "Housing in Australia in the 2000s: On the Agenda Too Late?," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Hugo Gerard & Jonathan Kearns (ed.), The Australian Economy in the 2000s Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2014. "Analysing interest rate mark-ups in the Australian mortgage market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 343-361.
    5. Kevin Davis, 2011. "The Australian Financial System in the 2000s: Dodging the Bullet," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Hugo Gerard & Jonathan Kearns (ed.), The Australian Economy in the 2000s Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul & Bashar, Omar H.M.N. & Ahmed, Huson Joher Ali, 2012. "Monetary policy and the housing market in Australia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 849-863.

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    Keywords

    E21 ; E44 ; C32 ; R21 ;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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