IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article

Housing, consumption and monetary policy: How different are the US and the euro area?

  • Musso, Alberto
  • Neri, Stefano
  • Stracca, Livio

This paper provides a systematic empirical analysis of the role of the housing market in the macroeconomy in the US and the euro area. First, it establishes some stylised facts concerning key variables in the housing market on the two sides of the Atlantic, such as real house prices, residential investment and mortgage debt. It then presents evidence from Structural Vector Autoregressions (SVAR) by focusing on the effects of monetary policy, credit supply and housing demand shocks on the housing market and the broader economy. The analysis shows that similarities outweigh differences as far as the housing market is concerned. The empirical evidence suggests a stronger role for housing in the transmission of monetary policy shocks in the US. The evidence is less clear-cut for housing demand shocks. Finally, credit supply shocks seem to matter more in the euro area.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426611001439
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
Issue (Month): 11 (November)
Pages: 3019-3041

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:11:p:3019-3041
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Iacoviello, Matteo & Minetti, Raoul, 2008. "The credit channel of monetary policy: Evidence from the housing market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 69-96, March.
  2. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," CAMA Working Papers 2010-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. den Haan, Wouter J. & Sumner, Steven W. & Yamashiro, Guy M., 2007. "Bank loan portfolios and the monetary transmission mechanism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 904-924, April.
  4. Costello, Greg & Fraser, Patricia & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2011. "House prices, non-fundamental components and interstate spillovers: The Australian experience," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 653-669, March.
  5. Ignazio Angeloni & Anil K. Kashyap & Benoît Mojon & Daniele Terlizzese, 2003. "The output composition puzzle: a difference in the monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area and United States," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1265-1317.
  6. Henrique S. Basso and Javier Coto-Martinez, Yunus Aksoy,, 2010. "Lending Relationships and Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 2009:18, Uppsala University, Department of Economics, revised 21 Jan 2010.
  7. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1994. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1085, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  8. Case, Karl E. & Quigley, John M. & Shiller, Robert J., 2001. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus The Housing Market," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt44k6g6vx, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  9. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-40, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Alessandro Calza & Tommaso Monacelli & Livio Stracca, 2013. "Housing Finance And Monetary Policy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 101-122, 01.
  11. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Jan Kakes & Cees Ullersma, 2010. "Financial Acceleration of Booms and Busts," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 43(3), pages 321–337.
  13. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard Peach, 2002. "Monetary policy transmission to residential investment," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 139-158.
  14. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  15. John B. Taylor, 2007. "Housing and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Michael Haliassos & Dimitris Christelis & Dimitris Georgarakos, 2010. "Differences in Portfolios across Countries: Economic Environment versus Household Characteristics," MEA discussion paper series 10204, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  17. Zvi Hercowitz & Jeffrey C. Campbell, 2005. "The Role of Collateralized Household Debt in Macroeconomic Stabilization," 2005 Meeting Papers 120, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  18. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing is the business cycle," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 149-233.
  19. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
  20. Hernando Vargas, . "The Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Colombia Major Changes and Current Features," Borradores de Economia 431, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  21. Luci Ellis, 2008. "The housing meltdown: Why did it happen in the United States?," BIS Working Papers 259, Bank for International Settlements.
  22. Aoki, Kosuke & James Proudman & Gertjan Vlieghe, 2003. "House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 7, Royal Economic Society.
  23. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2007. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 659, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 23 Oct 2009.
  24. Carlos Vargas-Silva, 2007. "Monetary policy and the U.S. housing market: A VAR analysis imposing sign restrictions," Working Papers 0705, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
  25. Erceg, Christopher & Levin, Andrew, 2006. "Optimal monetary policy with durable consumption goods," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1341-1359, October.
  26. John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2008. "Housing markets and the economy: the assessment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 1-33, spring.
  27. Ghent, Andra C. & Owyang, Michael T., 2010. "Is housing the business cycle? Evidence from US cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 336-351, May.
  28. Efthymios Pavlidis & I Paya & D Peel & A M Spiru, 2009. "Bubbles in House Prices and their Impact on Consumption: Evidence for the US," Working Papers 601552, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  29. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Notarpietro, Alessandro, 2008. "Monetary policy and housing prices in an estimated DSGE for the US and the euro area," Working Paper Series 0972, European Central Bank.
  30. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2010. "The effect of monetary policy on house price inflation: A factor augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(6), pages 616-626, September.
  31. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2008. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables in a Small Open Economy: A Comparison between Small- and Large-Scale Models," Working Papers 200830, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  32. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
  33. David Miles & Vladimir Pillonca, 2008. "Financial innovation and European housing and mortgage markets," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 145-175, spring.
  34. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
  35. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2009. "'Real time'early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: a role for global liquidity," Working Paper Series 1039, European Central Bank.
  36. Dimitrios Christelis & Dimitris Georgarakos & Michael Haliassos, 2008. "Economic Integration and Mature Portfolios," CSEF Working Papers 194, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 23 Jan 2013.
  37. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Delis, Manthos D., 2009. "Identification of a loan supply function: A cross-country test for the existence of a bank lending channel," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 321-335, April.
  38. Gupta, Rangan & Jurgilas, Marius & Kabundi, Alain, 2010. "The effect of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa: A factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 315-323, January.
  39. Sommervoll, Dag Einar & Borgersen, Trond-Arne & Wennemo, Tom, 2010. "Endogenous housing market cycles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 557-567, March.
  40. Jarociński, Marek & Smets, Frank, 2008. "House Prices and the stance of Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 0891, European Central Bank.
  41. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
  42. Fabio Canova, 2007. "Bayesian Time Series and DSGE Models, from Methods for Applied Macroeconomic Research
    [Methods for Applied Macroeconomic Research]
    ," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
  43. Goodhart, Charles & Hofmann, Boris, 2008. "House Prices, Money, Credit and the Macroeconomy," Working Paper Series 0888, European Central Bank.
  44. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1993. "The cyclical behavior of short term business lending: implications for financial propagation mechanisms," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-6, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  45. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  46. Ben S. Bernanke & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "The Credit Crunch," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 205-248.
  47. Iacoviello, Matteo, 2000. "House prices and the macroeconomy in Europe: Results from a structural var analysis," Working Paper Series 0018, European Central Bank.
  48. Beltratti, Andrea & Morana, Claudio, 2010. "International house prices and macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 533-545, March.
  49. Fabio Canova, 2007. "DSGE Models, Solutions, and Approximations, from Methods for Applied Macroeconomic Research
    [Methods for Applied Macroeconomic Research]
    ," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
  50. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:11:p:3019-3041. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.