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Financial Acceleration of Booms and Busts

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  • Jan Kakes
  • Cees Ullersma

Abstract

For a panel of 20 industrialized countries from 1970 through 2002,we analyze the role of financial variables in economic cycles. We focus on equity busts, which are considered a proxy for downward revisions of economic prospects. Our empirical findings provide support for financial accelerator effects around asset price busts. The financial accelerator mechanism appears to have become stronger over time. The typical bust is followed by a reduction in nominal policy interest rates, sometimes to levels close to the zero lower bound.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Kakes & Cees Ullersma, 2005. "Financial Acceleration of Booms and Busts," DNB Working Papers 035, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:035
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
    2. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, April.
    3. Gertler, Mark & Lown, Cara S, 1999. "The Information in the High-Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle: Evidence and Some Implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 132-150, Autumn.
    4. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.
    5. Jan Kakes & Cees Ullersma, 2003. "Financial stability in low-inflation environments," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 355-367 Bank for International Settlements.
    6. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1998. "Capital-Market Imperfections and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 193-225, March.
    7. Asea, Patrick K. & Blomberg, Brock, 1998. "Lending cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 89-128.
    8. Michael D. Bordo & Olivier Jeanne, 2002. "Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability, and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. James M. Poterba, 2000. "Stock Market Wealth and Consumption," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 99-118, Spring.
    10. Ashoka Mody & Mark P. Taylor, 2003. "The High-Yield Spread as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity: Evidence of a Financial Accelerator for the United States," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(3), pages 1-3.
    11. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-276, June.
    12. Age Bakker & Bryan Chapple, 2002. "Advanced Country Experiences with Capital Account Liberalization," IMF Occasional Papers 214, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Willem van den End, 2006. "Indicator and boundaries of financial stability," DNB Working Papers 097, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    2. Musso, Alberto & Neri, Stefano & Stracca, Livio, 2011. "Housing, consumption and monetary policy: How different are the US and the euro area?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 3019-3041, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    asset price busts; financial accelerator;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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