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Is housing the business cycle? evidence from U.S. cities

  • Andra C. Ghent
  • Michael T. Owyang

We analyze the relationship between housing and the business cycle in a set of 51 U.S. cities. Most surprisingly, we find that declines in house prices are often not followed by declines in employment. We also find that national permits are a better leading indicator for a city’s employment than a city’s own permits.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2009-007.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2009-007
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  24. James D. Hamilton & Michael T. Owyang, 2012. "The Propagation of Regional Recessions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 935-947, November.
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