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Is housing the business cycle? evidence from U.S. cities

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  • Andra C. Ghent
  • Michael T. Owyang

Abstract

We analyze the relationship between housing and the business cycle in a set of 51 U.S. cities. Most surprisingly, we find that declines in house prices are often not followed by declines in employment. We also find that national permits are a better leading indicator for a city?s employment than a city?s own permits.

Suggested Citation

  • Andra C. Ghent & Michael T. Owyang, 2009. "Is housing the business cycle? evidence from U.S. cities," Working Papers 2009-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2009-007
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    Keywords

    Housing; Housing - Prices; Business cycles;
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