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Discordant city employment cycles

  • Owyang, Michael T.
  • Piger, Jeremy
  • Wall, Howard J.

This paper estimates city-level employment cycles for 58 large U.S. cities and documents the substantial cross-city variation in the timing, lengths, and frequencies of their employment contractions. It also shows how the spread of city-level contractions associated with U.S. recessions has tended to follow recession-specific geographic patterns. In addition, cities within the same state or region have tended to have similar employment cycles. We find no evidence, that similarities in employment cycles are related to similarities in industry mix, although cities with more-similar high school attainment and mean establishment size have tended to have more-similar employment cycles.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/30757/1/MPRA_paper_30757.pdf
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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/30774/1/MPRA_paper_30774.pdf
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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/41053/1/MPRA_paper_41053.pdf
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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/41053/2/Discordant_City_Employment_Cycles_08-16-12.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 30757.

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Date of creation: 12 Aug 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30757
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  1. Russell Hillberry & David Hummels, 2003. "Intranational Home Bias: Some Explanations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1089-1092, November.
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  4. Abraham, Katharine G. & Katz, Lawrence F., 1986. "Cyclical Unemployment: Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances?," Scholarly Articles 3442781, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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  11. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 47-61.
  12. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2008. "A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 578-589, November.
  13. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
  14. Caballero, Ricardo J & Engel, Eduardo M R A & Haltiwanger, John, 1997. "Aggregate Employment Dynamics: Building from Microeconomic Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 115-37, March.
  15. N. Edward Coulson, 2001. "Sectoral Sources of the Massachusetts Miracle and Other Turning Points," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 617-637.
  16. Chang, Sheng-Wen & Coulson, N. Edward, 2001. "Sources of Sectoral Employment Fluctuations in Central Cities and Suburbs: Evidence from Four Eastern U.S. Cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 199-218, March.
  17. Carlino, Gerald A. & DeFina, Robert H., 2004. "How strong is co-movement in employment over the business cycle? Evidence from state/sector data," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 298-315, March.
  18. Holger C. Wolf, 2000. "Intranational Home Bias In Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 555-563, November.
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  20. Del Negro, Marco, 2002. "Asymmetric shocks among U.S. states," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 273-297, March.
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  22. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  23. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
  24. Russell Hillberry & David Hummels, 2005. "Trade Responses to Geographic Frictions: A Decomposition Using Micro-Data," NBER Working Papers 11339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, June.
  26. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall & Christopher H. Wheeler, 2007. "The economic performance of cities: a Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 2006-056, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  27. Wall, Howard J., 2011. "The Employment Cycles of Neighboring Cities," MPRA Paper 29410, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  28. Simon, Curtis J, 1988. "Frictional Unemployment and the Role of Industrial Diversity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(4), pages 715-28, November.
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