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Sectoral shocks and metropolitan employment growth

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  • Gerald A. Carlino
  • Robert H. DeFina
  • Keith Sill

Abstract

Horvath and Verbrugge (1996) argue that when investigating the sources of aggregate fluctuations, it is important to use the highest frequency data available. Using monthly data for the U.S. economy they show that industry-specific shocks are more important in explaining fluctuations in industrial production than are common aggregate shocks. With the exception of Coulson (1999) studies that examine the issue at the subnational level have used low frequency, spatially aggregated data. The authors examine the relative importance of national disturbances versus local industry shocks for employment fluctuations using monthly data on five metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Input-output tables are used to quantify the strength of interindustry linkages, which are then used to help identify a structural VAR model for each MSA. Within-MSA industry shocks are found to explain considerably more of the forecast-error variance in industry employment growth (87-94 percent) than do common national shocks to productivity and monetary policy, and the manufacturing, services, and government sectors make the largest individual contributions to local employment variance. The authors also find that the measured importance of national shocks for employment fluctuations increases as the level of spatial aggregation increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerald A. Carlino & Robert H. DeFina & Keith Sill, 2000. "Sectoral shocks and metropolitan employment growth," Working Papers 00-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:00-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Simon, Curtis J., 2004. "Industrial reallocation across US cities, 1977-1997," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 119-143, July.
    2. Alexopoulos, Michelle & Cohen, Jon, 2015. "The power of print: Uncertainty shocks, markets, and the economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 8-28.
    3. Perry Burnett & Harvey Cutler & Stephen Davies, 2012. "Understanding The Unique Impacts Of Economic Growth Variables," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 451-468, August.
    4. Shu-hen Chiang, 2012. "The sources of metropolitan unemployment fluctuations in the Greater Taipei metropolitan area," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(4), pages 775-793, November.
    5. Andrea R. Lamorgese, 2008. "Innovation driven sectoral shocks and aggregate city cycles," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 667, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Duranton, Gilles, 2002. "City size distributions as a consequence of the growth process," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20065, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. repec:elg:eechap:14395_7 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Dan S. Rickman, 2010. "Modern Macroeconomics And Regional Economic Modeling," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 23-41.
    9. M. Bellinzas, 2004. "Dinamiche demografiche, agglomerazione e determinanti economiche. Il caso italiano," Working Paper CRENoS 200407, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    10. Gerald A. Carlino, 2003. "A confluence of events? explaining fluctuations in local employment," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q1, pages 6-12.
    11. Gilles Duranton, 2007. "Urban Evolutions: The Fast, the Slow, and the Still," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 197-221, March.
    12. Carlino, Gerald A. & DeFina, Robert H., 2004. "How strong is co-movement in employment over the business cycle? Evidence from state/sector data," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 298-315, March.
    13. Michele Campolieti & Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop, 2013. "A new look at variation in employment growth in Canada," Working Papers 26145565, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    14. Coulson, N. Edward & Liu, Crocker H. & Villupuram, Sriram V., 2013. "Urban economic base as a catalyst for movements in real estate prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 1023-1040.
    15. Michael Fratantoni & Scott Schuh, 2000. "Monetary policy, housing investment, and heterogeneous regional markets," Working Papers 00-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

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    Employment (Economic theory);

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