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The cyclical behavior of regional per capita incomes in the postwar period

  • Gerald Carlino
  • Keith Sill

This paper examines the cyclical dynamics of per capita personal income for the major U.S. regions during the 1953:3-95:2 period. The analysis reveals considerable differences in the volatility of regional cycles. Controlling for differences in volatility, the authors find a great deal of comovement in the cyclical response of four regions (New England, Southeast, Southwest, and Far West), which the authors call the core region, and the nation. The authors also find a great deal of comovement between the Mideast and Plains regions, but these regions are only weakly correlated with national movements. The cyclical response of the Great Lakes region is markedly different from that of the other regions and the nation. Possible sources underlying differences in regional cycles are explored, such as the share of a region's income accounted for by manufacturing, defense spending as a proportion of a region's income, oil price shocks, and the stance of monetary policy. Somewhat surprisingly, the authors find that the share of manufacturing in a region seems to account for little of the variation in regional cycles.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its series Working Papers with number 98-11.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:98-11
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  1. Gerald Carlino & Robert Defina, 1998. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 572-587, November.
  2. Coulson N. Edward, 1993. "The Sources of Sectoral Fluctuations in Metropolitan Areas," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 76-94, January.
  3. Engle, Robert F. & Issler, Joao Victor, 1995. "Estimating common sectoral cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 83-113, February.
  4. Quah, Danny T, 1996. "Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 137-59.
  5. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec..
  6. Coulson, N.E. & Rushen, S.F., 1993. "Sources of Fluctuations in the Boston Economy," Papers 4-93-5, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  7. Vahid, Farshid & Engle, Robert F., 1997. "Codependent cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 199-221, October.
  8. Carlino Gerald & Defina Robert, 1995. "Regional Income Dynamics," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 88-106, January.
  9. Steven J. Davis & Prakash Lougani & Ramamohan Mahidhara, 1997. "Regional Labor Fluctuations: Oil Shocks, Military Spending, and Other Driving Forces," JCPR Working Papers 4, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
  10. Boschen, John F & Mills, Leonard O, 1995. "The Relation between Narrative and Money Market Indicators of Monetary Policy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(1), pages 24-44, January.
  11. Hooker, Mark A & Knetter, Michael M, 1997. "The Effects of Military Spending on Economic Activity: Evidence from State Procurement Spending," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 400-421, August.
  12. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1987. "Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 333-36, May.
  13. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-93, August.
  14. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  15. Carolyn Sherwood-Call, 1988. "Exploring the relationships between national and regional economic fluctuations," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sum, pages 15-25.
  16. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
  17. Robert F. Engle & Sharon Kozicki, 1990. "Testing For Common Features," NBER Technical Working Papers 0091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Gonzalo, J. & Granger, C., 1992. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Papers 4, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  19. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  20. Danny Quah, 1996. "Aggregate and regional disaggregate fluctuations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2081, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  21. Brian A. Cromwell, 1992. "Does California drive the West? an econometric investigation of regional spillovers," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 13-23.
  22. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  23. Danny Quah, 1996. "Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations," CEP Discussion Papers dp0275, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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