Regional economic cycles and the emergence of sheltered economies in the periphery of the EU
It has been claimed that in recent years the evolution of regional disparities within European nations has become pro-cyclical, that is, disparities tend to increase in times of economic boom and to decrease during recessions. This represents a change with respect to the traditional patterns in the 1960s and 1970s, when growth in European lagging regions was higher than in the core during periods of economic growth, but lagging regions were more affected by economic crises. In this paper we first assess where and when this change has happened and then analyse what are the factors behind the change in the evolution of disparities. We use a 20-year long database, comprising NUTS II regions in five European countries (France, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) which include the great majority of European lagging regions. The evidence supports the shift to pro-cyclical patterns in the evolution of regional disparities, especially in those countries with a large number of Objective 1 regions (Spain, Italy and, less clearly, in Greece) whereas in France such a change has not yet occurred. Looking for the determinants of regional economic cycles, we conduct regression analyses finding that the shift in growth patterns is related to the emergence of what is known as sheltered economies, i.e. economies that are increasingly detached from the market, and thus increasingly impervious to economic cycles. Lagging European regions have become over the period of analysis increasingly dependant on factors such as transfers, public investment, and public employment and therefore less exposed to changes in market conditions.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991.
"Convergence across States and Regions,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
- Diego Puga, 2002.
"European regional policies in light of recent location theories,"
Journal of Economic Geography,
Oxford University Press, vol. 2(4), pages 373-406, October.
- Puga, Diego, 2001. "European Regional Policies in Light of Recent Location Theories," CEPR Discussion Papers 2767, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sari Pekkala, 2000. "Aggregate economic fluctuations and regional convergence: the Finnish case 1988-95," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 211-219.
- Gerald A. Carlino & Keith Sill, 1997. "Regional economies: separating trends from cycles," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue May, pages 19-31.
- Hess, Gregory D & Shin, Kwanho, 1997. "International and Intranational Business Cycles," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 93-109, Autumn.
- Salvador Barrios & Juan José de Lucio, "undated".
"Economic Integration and Regional Business Cycles: Evidence from the Iberian regions,"
- Salvador Barrios & Juan Jose Lucio, 2003. "Economic Integration and Regional Business Cycles: Evidence from the Iberian Regions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(4), pages 497-515, 09.
- BARRIOS, Salvador & de LUCIO, Juan José, 2002. "Economic integration and regional business cycles: Evidence from the Iberian regions," CORE Discussion Papers 2002073, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- BARRIOS, Salvador & DE LUCIO, Juan José, "undated". "Economic integration and regional business cycles: evidence from the Iberian regions," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1655, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Quah, Danny, 1995.
"Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1236, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- S Barrios & M Brülhart & R Elliott & M Sensier, 2001.
"A Tale of Two Cycles: Co-fluctuations Between UK Regions and the Euro Zone,"
The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series
0101, Economics, The University of Manchester.
- Salvador Barrios & Marius Br¸lhart & Robert J.R. Elliott & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "A Tale of Two Cycles: Co-Fluctuations Between UK Regions and the Euro Zone," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(3), pages 265-292, 06.
- Salvador BARROS & Marius BRÜLHART & Robert J.R. ELLIOTT & Marianne SENSIER, 2001. "A Tale of Two Cycles: Co-Fluctuations Between UK Regions and the Euro Zone," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 01.10, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
- S Barrios & M Brülhart & R J R Elliott & M Sensier, 2002. "A Tale of Two Cycles: Co-fluctuations Between UK Regions and the Euro Zone," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 03, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
- Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés & Fratesi, Ugo, 2002. "Unbalanced development strategies and the lack of regional convergence in the EU," ERSA conference papers ersa02p415, European Regional Science Association.
- Karen Helene Midelfart-Knarvik & Henry G. Overman, 2002. "Delocation and European integration: is structural spending justified?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 17(35), pages 321-359, October.
- Gerald A. Carlino & Keith Sill, 2000.
"Regional income fluctuations: common trends and common cycles,"
00-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Gerald Carlino & Keith Sill, 2001. "Regional Income Fluctuations: Common Trends And Common Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(3), pages 446-456, August.
- Philippe Aghion & Gilles Saint-Paul, 1993.
"Uncovering Some Causal Relationships between Productivity Growth and the Structure of Economic Fluctuations: A Tentative Survey,"
NBER Working Papers
4603, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Philippe Aghion & Gilles Saint-Paul, 1998. "Uncovering Some Causal Relationships Between Productivity Growth and the Structure of Economic Fluctuations: A Tentative Survey," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 12(2), pages 279-303, 07.
- Gerald A. Carlino & Keith Sill, 1998. "The cyclical behavior of regional per capita incomes in the postwar period," Working Papers 98-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Regional convergence clusters across Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 951-958, April.
- Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman, 2002. "Did The New Economy Vanquish The Regional Business Cycle?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 20(4), pages 456-469, October.
- Michele Boldrin & Fabio Canova, 2001. "Inequality and convergence in Europe's regions: reconsidering European regional policies," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 205-253, 04.
- Quah, Danny, 1996. "Regional Convergence Clusters Across Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1286, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Enrique Lopez Bazo & Esther Vaya Valcarce & Antonio Jose Mora & Jordi Surinach Caralt, 1997. "Regional economic dynamics and convergence in the european union," Working Papers in Economics 12, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
- Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992.
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-251, April.
- Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence Across States and Regions," Papers 629, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence," Papers 645, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Barro, Robert J. & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Scholarly Articles 3451299, Harvard University Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa03p189. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gunther Maier)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.