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Space-time analysis of GDP disparities among European regions: A Markov chains approach

  • LE GALLO, Julie

    ()

    (LATEC - CNRS - Université de Bourgogne)

The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of the disparities between 138 European regions over the 1980-1995 period. We characterize the regional per capita GDP cross-sectional distribution by means of nonparametric estimations of density functions and we model the growth process as a first-order stationary Markov chain. Spatial effects are then introduced within the Markov chain framework using regional conditioning and spatial Markov chains. The results of the analysis indicate the persistence of regional disparities, a progressive bias toward a poverty trap and the importance of geography to explain growth and convergence processes.

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Paper provided by LATEC, Laboratoire d'Analyse et des Techniques EConomiques, CNRS UMR 5118, Université de Bourgogne in its series LATEC - Document de travail - Economie (1991-2003) with number 2001-06.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:lat:lateco:2001-06
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  1. Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-85, December.
  2. Fingleton, Bernard, 1997. "Specification and Testing of Markov Chain Models: An Application to Convergence in the European Union," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(3), pages 385-403, August.
  3. Danny Quah, 1992. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 75, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. Enrique Lopez Bazo & Esther Vaya Valcarce & Antonio Jose Mora & Jordi Surinach Caralt, 1997. "Regional economic dynamics and convergence in the european union," Working Papers in Economics 12, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  5. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 820, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Barro, R.J., 1989. "Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries," RCER Working Papers 201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  7. Quah, Danny, 1996. "Regional Convergence Clusters Across Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1286, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Magrini, Stefano, 1999. "The evolution of income disparities among the regions of the European Union," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 257-281, March.
  9. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X., 1996. "Regional cohesion: Evidence and theories of regional growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1325-1352, June.
  10. Paapaa, Richard & van Dijk, Herman K., 1998. "Distribution and mobility of wealth of nations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(7), pages 1269-1293, July.
  11. Damien NEVEN & Claudine GOUYETTE, 1993. "Regional Convergence in the European Comunity," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 9311, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  12. BAUMONT, Catherine & ERTUR, Cem & LE GALLO, Julie, 2001. "A Spatial Econometric Analysis of Geographic Spillovers and Growth for European Regions, 1980-1995," LATEC - Document de travail - Economie (1991-2003) 2001-04, LATEC, Laboratoire d'Analyse et des Techniques EConomiques, CNRS UMR 5118, Université de Bourgogne.
  13. Robert J. Barro & Paul M. Romer, 1991. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr91-1, 07.
    • Robert J. Barro & Paul Romer, 1993. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr93-1, 07.
  14. Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence Across States and Regions," Papers 629, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  15. Ramon Moreno & Bharat Trehan, 1997. "Location and the growth of nations," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 97-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  16. Johnson, Paul, 1999. "A Nonparametric Analysis of Income Convergence Across the US States," Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series 46, Vassar College Department of Economics.
  17. LE GALLO, Julie & ERTUR, Cem, 2000. "Exploratory spatial data analysis of the distribution of regional per capita GDP in Europe, 1980-1995," LATEC - Document de travail - Economie (1991-2003) 2000-09, LATEC, Laboratoire d'Analyse et des Techniques EConomiques, CNRS UMR 5118, Université de Bourgogne.
  18. Desdoigts, Alain, 1999. " Patterns of Economic Development and the Formation of Clubs," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 305-30, September.
  19. Bianchi, Marco, 1997. "Testing for Convergence: Evidence from Non-parametric Multimodality Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 393-409, July-Aug..
  20. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Regional convergence clusters across Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 951-958, April.
  21. Shorrocks, A F, 1978. "The Measurement of Mobility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1013-24, September.
  22. Sergio Rey & Brett Montouri, 1999. "US Regional Income Convergence: A Spatial Econometric Perspective," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 143-156.
  23. Friedman, Milton, 1992. "Do Old Fallacies Ever Die?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 2129-32, December.
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