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US Regional Income Convergence: A Spatial Econometric Perspective

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  • Sergio Rey
  • Brett Montouri

Abstract

REY S. J. and MONTOURI B. D. (1999) US regional income convergence: a spatial econometric perspective, Reg. Studies 33 , 143-156. This study reconsiders the question of US regional economic income convergence from a spatial econometric perspective. Recently developed methods of exploratory spatial data analysis provide new insights on the geographical dynamics of US regional income growth patterns over the 1929-94 period. Strong patterns of both global and local spatial autocorrelation are found throughout the study period, and the magnitude of global spatial autocorrelation is also found to exhibit strong temporal co-movement with regional income dispersion. A spatial econometric analysis of the familiar Baumol specification reveals strong evidence of misspecification due to ignored spatial error dependence. Because of this dependence, shocks originating in one state can spillover into surrounding states, potentially complicating the transitional dynamics of the convergence process. REY S. J. et MONTOURI B. D. (1999) La convergence du revenu regional aux Etats-Unis: une perspective econometrique, spatiale, Reg. Studies 33 , 143-156. Cette etude remet en cause la convergence du revenu economique regional a partir d'une perspective econometrique, spatiale. De nouvelles methodes qui permettent une premiere analyse des donnees spatiales, fournissent un autre apercu sur la dynamique geographique de la repartition de la croissance du revenu regional aux Etats-Unis de 1929 a 1994. Pendant toute la periode etudiee, de fortes autocorrelations geographiques a la fois globales et locales sont a noter. Il s'avere aussi que l'ampleur de l'autocorrelation spatiale, globale va de pair dans le temps avec la dispersion du revenu regional. Une analyse econometrique, spatiale de la specification bien connue de Baumol fait preuve de la mauvaise specification due a la dependance vis a vis des erreurs spatiales a laquelle on n'a pas fait attention. A cause de cette dependance, des chocs qui proviennent d'un etat particulier peuvent avoir des retombees sur les etats limitrophes, ce qui risque de compliquer la dynamique transitoire du processusdeconvergence. REY S. J. und MONTOURI B. D. (1999) Konvergenz regionaler Einkommen in den Vereinigten Staaten: ein raumlich- okonometrischer Ausblick, Reg. Studies 33 , 143-156. Diese Studie behandelt noch einmal die Frage der Konvergenz regionaler Einkommen in den Vereinigten Staaten vom Standpunkt der raumlichen Okonometrie aus. Kurzlich entwickelte Methoden einer Analyse raumlicher Untersuchungsdaten verschaffen neue Einsichten in die geographische Dynamik der Muster regionalen Wachstums von Einkommen in den Vereinigten Staaten im Zeitraum 1929- 94. Fur die genannte Untersuchungsperiode werden robuste Muster globaler wie auch ortlicher raumlicher Autokorrelationen festgestellt, wobei der Umfang letzterer sich zudem als in kraftigem zeitlichem Gleichschritt mit der Streuung regionaler Einkommen erweist. Eine raumliche okonometrische Analyse der bekannten Baumol Spezifizierung liefert handfeste Beweise fehlerhafter Spezifizierungen infolge unbeachtet gebliebener Abhangigkeit von raumlichen Irrtumern. Dank dieser Abhangigkeit kann der Schock eines Staates in Nachbarstaaten Kreise ziehen, und die Ubergangsdynamik des Konvergenzprozesses verkomplizieren.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio Rey & Brett Montouri, 1999. "US Regional Income Convergence: A Spatial Econometric Perspective," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 143-156.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:33:y:1999:i:2:p:143-156
    DOI: 10.1080/00343409950122945
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