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Un Indicatore di Attività Economica per la Lombardia e per le Province di Milano e Pavia

Author

Listed:
  • Donatella Baiardi

    () (Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods, University of Pavia)

  • Carluccio Bianchi

    () (Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods, University of Pavia)

Abstract

This paper aims to construct a high-frequency coincident indicator of economic activity for Lombardy and for the provinces of Milan and Pavia, by using the dynamic factor model approach introduced by Stock e Watson (1998a e 1998b). The principal component technique is first used to summarize the information contained in a large dataset in a limited number of common factors capable of capturing the main features of local business fluctuations. The EM (Expectation Maximization) algorithm then allows to compute the desired territorial indicators by taking into account the official annual data on regional GDP or provincial value-added growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Donatella Baiardi & Carluccio Bianchi, 2010. "Un Indicatore di Attività Economica per la Lombardia e per le Province di Milano e Pavia," Quaderni di Dipartimento 130, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
  • Handle: RePEc:pav:wpaper:130
    as

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    File URL: http://economia.unipv.it/docs/dipeco/quad/ps/RePEc/pav/wpaper/q130.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Forni, Mario, et al, 2001. "Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages 62-85, May.
    4. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
    5. Gerald Carlino & Keith Sill, 2001. "Regional Income Fluctuations: Common Trends And Common Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(3), pages 446-456, August.
    6. Coulson N. Edward & Rushen Steven F., 1995. "Sources of Fluctuations in the Boston Economy," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 74-93, July.
    7. Quah, Danny T, 1996. "Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 137-159.
    8. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
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    10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coincident Economic Activity Indicators; Italian Regions; Diffusion Indexes;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

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